Price trend

According to the data monitored by SunSirs, the domestic carbon black price was 12,250 RMB/ton on November 30. The carbon black market price rose slightly this month. The carbon black market demand was flat, and the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, with little change in the market.

Analysis review

On the cost side, the price of high-temperature coal tar for raw materials rose and fell in this month, and the price in most regions was temporarily stable with limited fluctuation. Affected by the limited production of coke enterprises, the market supply of raw material high-temperature coal tar was limited, the supply of goods in the market was short, and the market price continued to rise, driving the price of carbon black market to rise again. In the short term, it is expected that the domestic coal tar will be mainly sorted out, the tight supply pattern of the coal tar market will remain, the downstream deep processing and carbon black enterprises will face losses, and there will be resistance to the high price of coal tar. It is expected that the market price of coal tar will be deadlocked at a high level in the short term. The downward space is limited, and the carbon black market price mainly continued supported by the high raw material price.

Supply and demand: Most enterprises started to work steadily, continuing the early start attitude. The shipment of some carbon black manufacturers slowed down, and the carbon black inventory increased.

In terms of downstream tire enterprises, the operating rate of the tire market is relatively stable at present. Most enterprises have maintained a stable operating rate, and early maintenance enterprises have gradually resumed operating. However, the downstream sales are general, and there is no significant improvement. The demand for carbon black is poor, and the purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The overall market trading atmosphere is light, and new orders are limited.

Import and export data. According to customs data, China imported 9,300 tons of carbon black in October 2022, an increase of 26.86% year on year and 49.61% month on month; From January to October 2022, China imported about 76,100 tons of carbon black, a decrease of 10.98% over the same period last year, and the import decreased by about 9,400 tons. In October, the top three countries in terms of carbon black imports were South Korea, the Russian Federation and Belgium; They accounted for 22%, 20% and 11% of the total imports respectively. According to customs data, China's carbon black export in October 2022 was about 56,300 tons, an increase of 29.60% year on year and a decrease of 11.75% month on month. From January to October 2022, the cumulative export volume will be 711,800 tons, an increase of 16% over the same period last year, and the export volume increased by about 96,800 tons. Among them, the top three countries in terms of carbon black exports in October were Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia; They accounted for 29%, 24% and 15% of the total export respectively.

Market outlook

In a word, the price of high-temperature coal tar as a raw material remains at a high level as a whole, supporting the price of carbon black. It is expected that the price of carbon black market will remain at a high level in the short term. In the future, attention should be paid to the dynamics of raw materials and downstream markets.

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