SunSirs: The Supply Contradiction is Getting Stronger, China EVA market is Weak in 2022

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the EVA market in 2022 began to rise at 18,000 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year, and turned down in the year to December 26. As of December 26, the EVA price was 13,633.33 RMB/ton, down 24.26% for the whole year, with the overall trend rising first and then declining.

In 2022, EVA market will be divided into high market and low market:

The first stage: shock rising stage. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of EVA was 18,000 RMB/ton on January 1 and 24,400 RMB/ton as of May 10, with a range increase of 35.56%. During the period, multiple market positive factors dominated. First, the demand for downstream photovoltaic materials was good. At the same time, the supply of petrochemical enterprises also remained tight, and factory prices provided strong support to the market. In addition, the supply price of bidding goods at this stage remained high, boosting market confidence. In the first half of the year, although the international crude oil fluctuated, the price was still at a high level and the cost brought relative support. The profits were superimposed. In the first half of the year, the market power of EVA became stronger and the price rose.

The second stage: weak decline stage. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the EVA price fell rapidly from 24,400 RMB/ton on May 10 to 13,633.33 RMB/ton on December 26, with a range drop of 44.31%. In terms of cost, the international crude oil and chemical industry chain continues to be affected by the turmoil in Europe, and EVA is also affected and dragged. At this stage, the market supply is sufficient, the demand is beginning to show fatigue, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is limited, and the market trading atmosphere is light. The traders were in a poor state of mind and kept up with the decline for active shipment. The ex factory quotation of petrochemical enterprises was lowered due to the loss of demand support. Especially in the fourth quarter, the demand for EVA in the photovoltaic industry declined sharply, and the soft and hard materials also fell to nearly the same price due to weak consumption. Until now, the market continues to explore the bottom, which is believed to ease the worries of the industry about future demand.

In general, the trend of EVA market in 2022 is mainly affected by the following aspects:

1) The EVA downstream industry grew rapidly, and the demand for photovoltaic products increased. 2) The macroeconomic environment is negative, and the losses of EVA business units are expanding. 3) EVA enterprises started to supply at a high level gradually relaxed.

EVA analysts from SunSirs believe that in 2022, EVA production capacity will expand steadily and downstream enterprises will grow rapidly. The supply side is tight first and then loose. The upstream formaldehyde market fluctuates, and the EVA cost support is general. On the macro level, the current global inflationary economic environment remains unchanged, the wide fluctuation of oil prices driven by European geopolitical conflicts, the rebound of domestic health events, and the devaluation of the RMB have all had negative effects on the EVA market to varying degrees. To sum up, the EVA industry will rise first and then fall in 2022, and the market momentum will weaken. It is expected that EVA market will continue to go to the bottom position.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.