SunSirs: The Price of Caustic Soda Rose First and Then Fell in December, and Rose Overall
January 04 2023 09:35:42 SunSirs (John)
Price trend
According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the price of caustic soda rose first and then fell in December, and rose on the whole. At the beginning of the month, the average price in Shandong market was 1,098 RMB/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price in Shandong market was about 1,116 RMB/ton. The price rose 1.64%, and the price rose 12.8% compared with the same period last year.
On January 2, the caustic soda commodity index was 162.30, unchanged from the previous day, down 38.86% from the peak of 265.47 points (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 149.27% from the lowest point of 65.11 points on October 9, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
Analysis review
According to the survey data of SunSirs, the domestic caustic soda price had been kept stable and adjusted sporadically by the end of December. The average market price in Shandong was about 1,060-1,160 RMB/ton. The factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda mainstream in Hebei was about 1,100-1,300 RMB/ton.
The price of caustic soda fell first and then rose this month. In the first ten days of December, the price of caustic soda rose. As the downstream alumina was approaching the Spring Festival, there was a plan to prepare for production, and the overall order volume increased. In addition, the recent price of alumina was firm, which supported the price of liquid caustic soda. However, with the purchase plan going ahead, the price of caustic soda that continued to rise in the downstream was depressed. The downstream alumina was more cautious. The buyer and the seller were still playing a game of supply and demand, and the price of caustic soda declined in a narrow range.
According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in December 2022, there were 3 kinds of rising goods, 2 kinds of falling goods and 0 kinds of goods with the same price in the list of price rises and falls of the chlor alkali industry. The main commodities that rose were caustic soda (2.73%), PVC (2.22%) and light soda ash (0.38%); The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (- 2.25%) and calcium carbide (- 1.33%).
Market outlook
Analysts from SunSirs believe that recently, the price of caustic soda had been adjusted sporadically and the mainstream had maintained stable operation. As the Spring Festival is approaching, there was a preparation plan for downstream alumina production, but the procurement plan was more cautious. Both the buyer and the seller still played a game of supply and demand. It is expected that caustic soda will be mainly consolidated, depending on the downstream market demand.
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