SunSirs: China Domestic Rapeseed Meal Showed an "M" Trend, with the Overall Rise Trend in 2022

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average market price of rapeseed meal was 2,896 RMB/ton on January 1, 2022, and 3,354 RMB/ton on December 31, 2022, with a rise of 15.81% during the period, 24.68% higher than that on January 1, 2021.

The first stage: The average spot price of domestic rapeseed meal was 2,896 RMB/ton on January 1, and 4,000 RMB/ton on March 31, with a rise of 38.12%.

With the increase of rapeseed, the global rapeseed supply was becoming more nervous, and the cost support was obvious. The dry weather in the main soybean producing areas of South America has boosted the domestic meal market and the spot price of rapeseed meal has kept rising. Due to the high price of imported rapeseed, the operating rate of oil plants was low, and the supply of rapeseed meal was tight. As the weather gets warmer, we are optimistic about the demand for rapeseed meal.

The second stage: On April 1, the average spot price of domestic rapeseed meal was 3,982 RMB/ton, and on July 31, the average spot price of domestic rapeseed meal was 3,556 RMB/ton, down 10.71%, which was obviously reflected in the middle and late June. From April to June, domestic rapeseed meal operated in a narrow range.

Concern about tight global rapeseed supply, coupled with high rapeseed costs, supported the narrow range of rapeseed shock operation. In the middle and late June, rapeseed meal futures fell, and rapeseed meal spot decreased accordingly. Domestic rapeseed has been listed in large quantities, and the output of rapeseed meal has increased, which has depressed the market of rapeseed meal. The planting area of seeds was expected to increase, and the early growth was good. The supply of seeds was expected to increase. Australia, India and other major rapeseed producers maintained a high level, and the global rapeseed supply was expected to improve. The demand for rapeseed meal was not good, and the inventory was at a high level. Multiple negative factors depressed the rapeseed meal market.

The third stage: On August 1, the average spot price of domestic rapeseed meal was 3,568 RMB/ton, and on September 30, the average spot price of domestic rapeseed meal was 4,238 RMB/ton, with an increase of 18.78%.

Canadian rapeseed was harvested in September, and new Canadian seeds will come into the market after October. Before that, global rapeseed supply and demand were tight, supporting the rapeseed market. The price of domestic rapeseed meal rose strongly in September, and the oil price was weak at the beginning of September, which increased the market sentiment. The USDA report in September was positive, and the spot market of rapeseed meal rose sharply; The number of imported rapeseed was relatively low. According to statistics, China's rapeseed imports fell 66% year-on-year in August. The operating rate of oil plants was not high, and the output of rapeseed meal decreased, but the import of rapeseed meal was at a high level in the same period.

The fourth stage: the spot price of rapeseed meal has weakened significantly since October. On October 1, the average spot price of domestic rapeseed meal was 4,238 RMB/ton, and on December 31, the average spot price of domestic rapeseed meal was 3,354 RMB/ton, down 20.86%.

Crude oil prices rose during the National Day, supporting the price of seeds. Starting from the second half of October, negative factors dominated, and rapeseed meal spot shocks continued to fall. At the beginning of November, according to statistics, Chinese oil plants have purchased 30 ships of rapeseed in November and December, about 1.8 million tons, and the supply of rapeseed was expected to increase later. In terms of demand, the weather was cooling, the feeding of aquaculture was weakening, the rapeseed meal ushers in the traditional off-season, and the demand for rapeseed meal falls seasonally.

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, in the past five years, the spot price of rapeseed meal was at a historical high in 2022. In 2022, the highest spot price of rapeseed meal appeared on October 14. The average price was 4,252 RMB/ton, up 46.82% from the beginning of 2022. The lowest point in 2022 was 2,896 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year.

Soybean meal: According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,522 RMB/ton on January 1, 2022, and 4,682 RMB/ton on December 31, 2022, with an increase of 32.94%. In 2022, the supply of raw materials imported soybeans was tight, the soybean meal inventory was low, the terminal demand was weak, and the market was mixed.

In the fourth quarter of 2022, the increase in demand for rapeseed meal was weak, and the domestic rapeseed meal price will continue to fall. As the temperature drops, aquaculture was in the low demand season, and the demand for rapeseed meal drops seasonally. Rapeseed meal futures rose at the end of December 2022, and rapeseed meal spot increased slightly following the futures. According to data statistics, the global rapeseed output was expected to be 84.34 million tons in 2022/2023, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 10.38 million tons. The global rapeseed supply has significantly increased. Rapeseed analysts of SunSirs predict that the rapeseed will mainly operate with strong shocks in China at the beginning of 2023, but the increase was limited.

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