SunSirs: The Price of Thermal coal was relatively Strong in China Last Week (September 4-8)

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall price of thermal coal was relatively strong last week. On September 7th, the energy index stood at 1,013 points, an increase of 6 points from the previous day, a decrease of 35.11% from the cycle's highest point of 1,561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 98.24% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

In terms of origin, the coal mines in the production area maintain normal production, and the market mainly relies on long-term coal transportation, with stable coal supply. Currently, thermal coal maintains a stable, moderate to strong operating trend.

In terms of downstream ports, port prices have risen and the market is operating. Currently, traders are holding back and reluctant to sell, and market sentiment is good, leading to an increase in the price of thermal coal. The terminal power plant is actively removing inventory, and the inventory of the power plant is still available.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, coal prices across the country rose and fell in late August. The specific price changes of each coal type are as follows: The price of anthracite (washed in lump, volatile content≤8%) is 1,351.5 RMB/ton, an increase of 6.5 RMB/ton or 0.5% compared to the previous period. The price of ordinary mixed coal (a mixture of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal with a calorific value of 4,500 kcal) is 615.0 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.7 RMB/ton or 0.3% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dachun (a high-quality coal blend with a calorific value of 5,000 kcal) was 714.6 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.8 RMB/ton or 0.3% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youmian (high-quality blended coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal) is 820.1 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.1 RMB/ton or 0.1% compared to the previous period.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the coal mines in terms of origin maintain normal production, and the market mainly focuses on shipping Changxie coal. In terms of downstream ports, although there has been a slight upward trend recently, due to the cooling weather in the later stage, the daily consumption of power plants has decreased. Downstream procurement is still mainly based on demand, with limited demand from non electric enterprises. It is expected that the price of thermal coal will rise in the later stage or tend to consolidate and operate, depending on the downstream market demand.

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