SunSirs: The Price of China Thermal coal first Rose and then Fell in September

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal rose first and then fell in September. Prices rose in mid to early September, while thermal coal prices fell in late September. On September 27th, the energy index stood at 1,052 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 32.61% from the cycle's highest point of 1,561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 105.87% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

Mid to early October: In terms of production area, the coal mines in the production area maintain normal production, and the market is mainly focused on long-term coal transportation, with stable coal supply. Currently, thermal coal maintains a stable, moderate to strong operating trend. In terms of downstream ports, port prices have risen and the market is operating. Currently, traders are holding back and reluctant to sell, and market sentiment is good, leading to an increase in the price of thermal coal. The terminal power plant is actively removing inventory, and the inventory of the power plant is still available. Late September: In terms of origin, thermal coal is operating weakly, mainly with long-term cooperative supply. Towards the end of the month, due to the completion of production tasks, it enters the maintenance phase. In terms of the port market, there is currently no pressure to replenish the warehouse due to the fact that power plants mainly use long-term cooperative coal. Moreover, as the Double Festival approaches, some traders have already entered a vacation state in advance.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, the prices of various coal types in China continued to rise in mid September. The specific price changes of each coal type are as follows: The price of anthracite (washed in lump, volatile content≤8%) is 1,387.6 RMB/ton, an increase of 29.3%/ton compared to the previous period, or 2.2%. The price of ordinary mixed coal (a mixture of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal with a calorific value of 4,500 kcal) is 703.9 RMB/ton, an increase of 45.3 RMB/ton or 6.9% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dachun (a high-quality mixed coal with a calorific value of 5,000 kcal) is 816.0 RMB/ton, an increase of 54.1 RMB/ton or 7.1% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youmian (high-quality blended coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal) is 920.3 RMB/ton, an increase of 57.6 RMB/ton or 6.7% compared to the previous period.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the supply in terms of origin is relatively stable. In terms of downstream ports, as the weather and temperature drop, daily consumption will decrease. In addition, with stable long-term supply, the downstream maintains a wait-and-see attitude. Overall, it is expected that the short-term narrow consolidation operation of thermal coal will be the main focus, depending on the downstream market demand.

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