SunSirs: Overall Decline in China Thermal Coal Prices in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall price of thermal coal decreased in October. During the National Day holiday, there was a slight increase, but prices fell after the holiday. On October 30th, the energy index stood at 1,020 points, a decrease of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 34.66% from the highest point in the cycle of 1,561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 99.61% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

After the National Day holiday, the price of thermal coal has increased, but there has been no significant improvement in actual trading. As prices rise, downstream acceptance of high priced thermal coal is not high, and there are fewer phenomena of seeking and asking prices. The cautious wait-and-see attitude is the main trend, resulting in poor transactions and a decline in thermal coal prices. In terms of downstream ports this month, port prices are still showing a slight downward trend. Downstream demand has not shown a significant improvement, with low trading volume and some traders pushing prices, but downstream procurement is average and there is a phenomenon of price pressure.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 27th, from January to September 2023, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a revenue of 96.35 trillion RMB, which remained unchanged year-on-year. The operating revenue of the mining industry was 4467.39 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%. Among them, the operating revenue of coal mining and washing industry was 2,573.52 billion RMB, down 14.4% year on year. From January to September, industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide incurred operating costs of 81.96 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. The operating cost of the mining industry was 2,870.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%. Among them, the operating cost of coal mining and washing industry was 1,647.23 billion RMB, down 8.4% year on year.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that some coal mines have experienced production cuts and maintenance near the end of the month in terms of production areas, but the pressure on coal mine inventory is still significant. In terms of downstream ports, there is a strong bearish atmosphere, and the downstream maintains a wait-and-see attitude. Coal prices continue to decline, and it is expected that the short-term weak consolidation operation of thermal coal will be the main focus, depending on the downstream market demand.

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