SunSirs: Staged Replenishment Suspension, Deadlock after China EVA Market Rose in early November
November 15 2023 14:31:15 SunSirs (Selena)
In early November, the domestic EVA market remained stagnant after rising, and spot prices rebounded before trading sideways. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of November 12th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 12,133.33 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 1.96% compared to the beginning of the month.
The supply of ethylene at the raw material end decreased in early November, but the demand also declined simultaneously. At the same time, the high price of goods in the early stage combined with the decline of crude oil dragged on, and the current favorable situation for ethylene is rare, which may lead to a decline in the future;
The vinyl acetate industry has a high supply and low demand in the early stage, resulting in a weakening under pressure. Although the recent improvement in trading conditions is limited, the cost side has rebounded narrowly, supporting the vinyl acetate market. However, as vinyl acetate enters the traditional off-season, it is difficult to have a significant increase in demand, and the market may maintain consolidation. The market for EVA raw materials is average, with weak support for the EVA market.
In early November, the load level of domestic EVA enterprises was generally flat, with a slight decline. The industry's operating rate has dropped from 82% at the beginning of the month to around 80%. The market supply is abundant, and enterprise pricing operations are mainly based on high prices. The overall inventory pressure of EVA is moderate, but the continuous high load position gradually accumulates supply pressure. As downstream consumption declines, manufacturers' confidence weakens. EVA suppliers have loosened their support for spot goods.
In early November, the demand side performance of EVA showed another differentiation. The long-term weak demand for foam shoe materials has not changed. On the other hand, photovoltaic enterprises are rising from a low level of goods acquisition. Affected by this, market buying has increased, and spot prices have been boosted. With the phased completion of photovoltaic material stocking, the positive trend of increasing demand is gradually emerging. The mentality of the buyer camp has returned to a resistance towards high priced sources.
Overall, the EVA market remained stagnant after rising in early November. The support of raw material market for EVA spot is average. The industry load continues to be high, and downstream photovoltaic material consumption has subsided, causing the balance between supply and demand in the market to be disrupted. Supply pressure gradually rises, and spot prices stagnate and fluctuate horizontally. Currently, EVA suppliers are dominated by high prices, but if subsequent demand cannot be followed up in a timely manner, it is expected that the EVA market may decline in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in on-site demand.
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