SunSirs: Supply and Demand Game, China EVA SidewaysConsolidation in Late November

In late November, the domestic EVA market remained stable with minor fluctuations, with spot prices mainly fluctuating horizontally. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 27th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 12,233.33 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 2.80% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

In late November, the supply of ethylene at the raw material end remained at a relatively low level compared to the previous period. At the same time, the delay in the arrival of ethylene cargo at some ports and the decline in the capacity of the Panama Canal have not yet ended, and the contraction of domestic spot circulation continues. However, the starting positions of downstream industries are average, and there has been no increase in demand. Therefore, it is expected that although ethylene can maintain a strong operation in the future, the increase may be limited;

The pattern of high supply and low demand in the vinyl acetate industry is maintained, and prices continue to weaken under pressure. Recently, some downstream demand has further weakened, and the trading situation has not improved. But the cost side is operating steadily, and there is a lack of guidance on the empty space in the vinyl acetate field. Adding to the traditional off-season of vinyl acetate, there is an expectation of continued supply and demand contradictions. The market for EVA raw materials fluctuates, providing moderate support for the EVA market.

In terms of supply:

In late November, the load level of domestic EVA enterprises was re raised. The industry's operating rate has increased from around 72% in mid month to over 79% at present, and the market supply remains abundant. In terms of factory pricing, manufacturers have maintained a sideways trend, but the sustained high load position has gradually accumulated supply pressure. Currently, the overall inventory of EVA is high, and the supplier's support for spot goods is not strong.

In terms of demand:

The demand side performance of EVA in late November was average. The long-term weak demand for foam shoe materials has not changed. Photovoltaic companies operate cautiously, with some low-end offers driving demand for adhesive films to buy on dips. The market buying sentiment is lukewarm and lukewarm, with the buyer camp mainly observing and resisting the return of high priced goods.

Overall, the EVA market was generally sideways in late November. The raw material market provides moderate support for EVA spot prices. The industry load has returned to a high level, and downstream, except for photovoltaic materials, tend to be generally weak. Under the continued supply pressure pattern, it is difficult for spot prices to rise. The current EVA market is bullish and bearish, with a supply-demand game. Although the supplier maintains a favorable price attitude, the expected follow-up demand is not satisfactory. It is expected that the EVA market may be weakly consolidating in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in on-site demand.

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