SunSirs: China SBR Market has significantly Increased

Recently (12.18-12.27), the market for SBR has seen a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of December 27th, the price of SBR in the East China market was 12,483 RMB/ton, an increase of 7.77% from 11,583 RMB/ton on December 18th. Affected by the sudden incident at the Qilu Petrochemical plant, the Qilu SBR plant took off and operated under load on December 24th. The production capacity of the Qilu Petrochemical SBR plant is 230,000 tons/year, which is currently the largest SBR plant in China, accounting for 12% of the total production capacity in the country. Market expectations are that the supply of SBR will tighten in the short term, and the factory price of SBR will gradually increase by a total of 600 RMB/ton during the cycle. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 27th, the factory price of Qilu butadiene styrene 1502 of Sinopec North China Sales Company was 11900 RMB/ton. The market has a strong bullish sentiment, with the mainstream prices of SBR in Fushun, Jihua, and Yangzi in East China around 12,200-12,500 RMB/ton as of the 27th.

Recently (12.18-12.27), the prices of raw materials such as butadiene and styrene have increased, leading to an increase in the cost of SBR. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of December 27th, the price of butadiene was 8,503 RMB/ton, an increase of 5.52% from 8,058 RMB/ton on December 18th; As of December 27th, the price of styrene was 8,590 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.91% from 8,266 RMB/ton on December 18th.

Demand side: Recently (12.18-12.27), there has been a slight adjustment in the production of all steel tires, with weak demand for rubber. It is understood that as of late December 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region was 5.7%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the cost of SBR has increased, and the supply of SBR has slightly decreased. However, downstream tire support for rigid demand is weak, and it is expected that the price of SBR will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

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