SunSirs: China Thermal Coal Prices are Weak This Week (December 25-28)

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal has been weak this week. On December 27th, the energy index was 1,027 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 34.21% from the highest point in the cycle of 1,561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 100.98% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

In terms of origin, the prices of coal mines in the main production area are relatively stable, and some coal mines adjust their prices slightly based on transportation conditions. The supply in the Ordos region has tightened at the end of the year, and the overall price is relatively stable. The purchasing power in northern Shanxi has weakened, and coal prices have passively declined.

In terms of downstream ports, coal prices have slightly declined this week. Data shows that the daily consumption of power plants in eight provinces has risen to around 2.3 million tons, and the available inventory days have decreased to 15 days. However, as the new year is about to begin and the new share of imported coal is also about to recover, the downstream market is still mainly adopting a wait-and-see attitude and purchasing according to demand in the near future.

According to data recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics, coal prices across the country were mainly rising in mid December. The specific price changes of each coal type are as follows: the price of anthracite (washed lump, volatile content≤8%) is 1,148.8 RMB/ton, a decrease of 43.7 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 3.7%. The price of ordinary mixed coal (a mixture of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal with a calorific value of 4,500 kcal) is 735.9 RMB/ton, an increase of 19.1 RMB/ton or 2.7% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Damian (a high-quality mixed coal with a calorific value of 5,000 kcal) is 842.5 RMB/ton, an increase of 21.7 RMB/ton or 2.6% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youmix (high-quality mixed coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal) is 953.1 RMB/ton, an increase of 12.6 RMB/ton from the previous period, or 1.6%.

SunSirs analysts believe that in terms of origin, coal mine prices have been stable recently. In terms of downstream ports, prices have slightly declined this week. Power plants tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and purchase according to demand. Overall, it is expected that the price of thermal coal will be mainly adjusted based on downstream market demand.

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