SunSirs: China SBR Market first Fell and then Rose in December 2023

The market for SBR in December fell first and then rose. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of December 29th, the price of butadiene benzene 1502 was at 12,391 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.64% from 11,841 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, and the lowest point in the cycle was 11,458 RMB/ton. The supply of SBR in December was loose in the early stage and slightly tight at the end of the month; Downstream tire production has slightly declined due to environmental factors, and market transactions have been lackluster; The raw material butadiene experienced a significant decline in the early stage and a slight rebound at the end of the month, while the price of styrene slightly increased. The cost support for SBR was weak. At the beginning of the month, the butadiene rubber market was mainly affected by a sharp drop in butadiene prices and a loose supply side, resulting in weak prices; At the end of the month, on the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene rebounded, while the price of styrene slightly increased. In addition, due to the negative impact of the Qilu plant, the short-term supply side of the market tightened, stimulating the price of SBR to rise.

In December, the supply of SBR was initially loose, but in the latter half of the month, it was slightly tightened due to the negative impact of the Qilu plant.

In December, the price of butadiene, a raw material for SBR, fell significantly in the early stage and rebounded slightly at the end of the month, while the price of styrene rose slightly. The cost support for SBR was weak.

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of December 29th, the price of butadiene was 8,575 RMB/ton, a decrease of 6.03% from 9,125 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, and the low point in the cycle was 8,058 RMB/ton; As of December 29th, the price of styrene was 8,560 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.90% from 8,400 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.

The natural rubber market rose in December, providing slight support for SBR. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of December 29th, the price was 13,060 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.00% from 12,680 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, and the lowest point in the cycle was 12,300 RMB/ton.

Demand side: In December, tire production remained stable in the early stage and decreased in the later stage due to factors such as environmental protection and off-season, which weakened the support for rubber demand at the end of the month. It is understood that as of late December 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region was 4.90%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.8%.

SunSirs analysts believe that currently, the supply of SBR is tight in the short term, with some support from the cost side, but the demand side is weak. It is expected that the price of SBR will fluctuate slightly and fall slightly in the later stage as speculation weakens.

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