SunSirs: China Wastepaper and Corrugated Paper Fluctuate Downward, Maintaining Short-term Consolidation

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, after New Year's Day, the prices of waste paper in Zhejiang Province are still in a weak downward trend. On January 4, 2024, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow cardboard in Zhejiang Province was 1,604 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.74% compared to the average price of 1,616 RMB/ton on December 31. The price of corrugated paper has fallen slightly. On January 4th, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated base paper was 2,822 RMB/ton, which is 0.35% higher than the average price of 2,824 RMB/ton on December 31st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the prices of waste paper in Zhejiang region are still in a downward trend this week, but the decline has slowed down. The domestic waste paper market prices have gradually shifted from a decline to a mix of ups and downs. The decline in waste paper prices is mostly related to the end of the peak season for small finished paper demand and the decrease in interest of paper mills in purchasing waste yellow board paper. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, the packaging station has a high enthusiasm for shipping, and most paper mills intend to lower prices to attract waste yellow cardboard raw materials for production reserves during the Spring Festival period, which is also not conducive to the increase in waste paper prices.

The price of corrugated base paper continues to decline. Currently, the market is affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and some paper mills have issued plans to shut down their equipment. Therefore, the operating load rate of paper mills may show a significant decline, and the spot supply may decrease. At present, the release of Spring Festival orders is less than expected, leading to a gradual weakening of support for paper prices from holiday consumption. In addition, the increase in orders from downstream packaging factories has not met expectations, mainly consuming raw paper inventory and recovering funds. The willingness to reserve corrugated paper inventory is relatively low.

The paper analyst from SunSirs believes that as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the impact of the transmission effect between upstream and downstream products has led to insufficient support for paper prices in terms of cost. The market is in a stage of supply-demand contradiction transformation, and it is expected that the prices of waste paper and corrugated paper will be in a range of consolidation in the short term.

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