SunSirs: Weak Performance of Thermal Coal Prices Last Week (January 8-12)

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal has been weak this week. On January 11th, the energy index was 1013 points, a decrease of 5 points from yesterday, a decrease of 35.11% from the highest point in the cycle of 1,561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 98.24% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

In terms of origin, the prices of coal mines in the main production area are relatively stable, and some coal mines adjust their prices slightly based on transportation conditions. As the Spring Festival approaches, limited coal mines are gradually taking breaks, but now the purchasing demand for terminal power plants is average and the market activity is not high.

In terms of downstream ports, coal prices have slightly declined this week. Port coal prices are weakening, market demand is low, and transportation is mainly based on long-term cooperative coal. Traders have hope for an increase in coal prices, and still adopt a wait-and-see attitude. However, the downstream on-demand procurement market has weakened due to the higher temperature compared to the previous period, resulting in a weakening demand for civilian electricity.

According to data recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics, coal prices across the country mainly fell in late December. The specific price changes of each coal type are as follows: the price of anthracite (washed lump, volatile content≤8%) is 1,087.4 RMB/ton, a decrease of 61.4 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 5.3%. The price of ordinary mixed coal (a mixture of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal with a calorific value of 4,500 kcal) is 720.9 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.0% compared to the previous county road price of 15.0 RMB/ton. The price of Shanxi Damian (a high-quality mixed coal with a calorific value of 5,000 kcal) is 833.0 RMB/ton, a decrease of 9.5 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 1.1%. The price of Shanxi Youmix (high-quality mixed coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal) is 942.9 RMB/ton, a decrease of 10.2 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 1.1%.

SunSirs analysts believe that the recent prices of coal mines in terms of origin will be adjusted flexibly based on the coal mines themselves. In terms of downstream ports, prices have slightly declined this week. Power plants tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and purchase according to demand. Overall, it is expected that the price of thermal coal will be mainly adjusted based on downstream market demand.

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