SunSirs: Positive News Boosts China Rapeseed Meal Market

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, rapeseed meal has ended its previous downward trend and maintained an upward trend since March. On March 1st, the average market price of rapeseed meal was 2,636 RMB/ton, and on March 12th, the average market price of rapeseed meal was 2,751 RMB/ton, with an increase of 4.36% during the period.

According to data from SunSirs, domestic rapeseed meal has been continuously declining since September 2023. As of February 2024, it has been declining for six consecutive months, with the largest decline being 11.65% in October, followed by a decline of 8.75% in January 2024. The price of rapeseed meal rebounded in March.

Canadian Rapeseed Futures Stronger: Vancouver, March 11th News: On Monday, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Canadian Rapeseed Futures closed higher, with the benchmark period closing up about 1%. ICE Canadian Rapeseed Futures rose for the fourth consecutive trading day on Monday. The trend of adding rapeseed to the external market is relatively strong, which is beneficial for the domestic rapeseed meal market.

The planting area of rapeseed in Canada has decreased: According to a planting area report released by the Canadian Bureau of Statistics, it is expected that the planting area of rapeseed in 2024 will be 21.39 million acres, lower than last year's 22.08 million acres and a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%. The expected decrease in planting area in Canada, a major global producer, is favorable for the market of rapeseed meal.

On the supply side: During the Spring Festival, oil factories shut down extensively, but after the holiday, they started slowly, resulting in a decrease in rapeseed meal output and a decrease in rapeseed meal inventory, which is beneficial for the rise of rapeseed meal prices. In terms of domestic imported rapeseed: Since February, the profit of imported rapeseed has continued to improve, and domestic enterprises have added more rapeseed to purchase ships. According to data statistics, it is expected that the domestic rapeseed arrival volume from March to May will be nearly 1 million tons, with a large quantity of imported rapeseed. In terms of domestic imported rapeseed meal: According to data statistics, from March to May, the average monthly arrival of imported granular rapeseed meal in China was around 200,000 tons, with a cumulative arrival quantity of 100,000 tons more than the same period in 2023.

On the demand side: Currently, aquaculture has not entered the peak season of demand, but as the temperature gradually rises in March, aquatic feed enterprises slowly enter the stocking stage. Some enterprises have gradually increased their rapeseed meal inventory, and the demand for rapeseed meal is expected to gradually improve; In addition, the price of soybean and rapeseed meal is at a high level, and the substitution effect of rapeseed meal is obvious. The demand side is favorable for the rapeseed meal market, supporting the rise of the rapeseed meal market.

The fluctuation of rapeseed meal futures is relatively strong: On March 12th, the main 2405 contract of rapeseed meal futures rose by 1.96%, with an opening price of 2,602 RMB and a closing price of 2,654 RMB, up 51 RMB, with a maximum of 2,675 RMB and a minimum of 2,594 RMB. Yesterday, it was settled at 2,603 RMB and a settlement of 2,643 RMB. Entering March, rapeseed meal futures showed a strong and volatile trend, which to some extent boosted the spot market.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the average market price of soybean meal on March 1st was 3,292 RMB/ton, and on March 12th, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,504 RMB/ton, with an increase of 6.44% during the period. The recent rise in soybean meal prices has driven up the rapeseed meal market. Due to the rise in Brazilian soybean prices and the rebound in US soybeans, the cost of soybean imports has increased. In addition, the March USDA report was neutral and bullish, leading to an increase in futures prices. Soybean oil factories have raised prices, and traders have bought on rising prices. The soybean meal market has surged, driving up the rapeseed meal market.

The profit margin of imported rapeseed continues to improve, and it is expected that there will be an increase in the purchase of imported rapeseed ships in the later stage. The domestic supply of imported rapeseed is sufficient, and the operating rate of oil factories is expected to increase, resulting in an increase in rapeseed meal output; As the temperature gradually rises, aquaculture in March is about to enter the stocking stage, and the demand side has a certain supporting effect on rapeseed meal; On the other hand, the increase in seed prices in foreign markets is beneficial for the domestic rapeseed meal market. In addition, the recent rise in soybean meal prices has driven up the rapeseed meal market, with many positive factors. In the short term, it is expected that the rapeseed meal market will experience strong fluctuations.

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