SunSirs: Weak Performance in China Thermal Coal Prices Last Week

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal was weak last week. On March 17th, the energy index was 1,006 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 35.55% from the highest point in the cycle of 1,561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 96.87% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

In terms of origin, the overall supply of thermal coal is loose, and most coal mines maintain normal production. As the weather gradually warms up, coal hauling vehicles in the market are relatively scarce, and prices continue to fall under pressure, showing the off-season effect. Overall, the supply of long-term coal is the main focus, and downstream terminal procurement enthusiasm is average, with most maintaining a cautious wait-and-see attitude.

In terms of downstream ports, coal prices were generally weak last week due to the impact of long-term coal replenishment on power plant inventories, which led to a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards the market's coal supply. The overall market release was average, and the terminal market mainly maintained a small amount of rigid demand procurement for thermal coal. In the traditional off-season market context, overall transactions are relatively average.

SunSirs analysts believe that in terms of origin, long-term cooperative shipping is mainly implemented, and overall market transactions are average. In terms of downstream ports, prices were weak last week. Power plants tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and purchase according to demand. Overall, it is expected that the price of thermal coal will continue to fluctuate, depending on downstream market demand.

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