SunSirs: Supply Was Tight, Lead Prices Continued to Rise (May 13-20)
May 23 2024 11:09:57 SunSirs (John)
Price trend
This week, the lead market (5.13-5.20) had shown an overall upward trend, with the average domestic market price last week at 17,790 RMB/ton and this week at 18,540 RMB/ton, up 4.22%.
Analysis review
In recent times, the overall market trend had been stable, with a relatively stronger trend, and the lead ingot market had seen more gains than losses.
Macro: The US non farm payroll data in April fell short of expectations, and the softening of consumer prices in April boosted market expectations. The Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September this year, with two cuts throughout the year, and the market had regained its expectation of a rate cut. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States announced on Thursday exceeded expectations and rebounded, reaching a new high since August 2023. The US dollar index closed last Friday with a weekly decline of 0.79%. The US dollar weakened, and the non-ferrous metal sector rebounded.
Supply: The supply at the mining end was still tight, with local lead enterprises resuming work and undergoing maintenance recently, and local lead enterprises operating at a low rate; The difficulty in purchasing raw materials for recycled lead enterprises had led to a decline in operating rates and a tight supply of recycled lead. Due to the impact of raw material supply, it is expected that the supply of lead ingots in the near future will be tight.
Demand: May is a seasonal off-season for battery companies, and they were still actively digesting existing inventory. Due to the impact of high raw material prices, battery companies were temporarily under significant cost pressure and operating at a low level.
Market outlook
Overall, the macro market atmosphere was temporarily warm, with the nonferrous metal market generally rising and lead prices following the overall upward trend. The lead ingot market had been affected by multiple factors, and the supply had been tight recently. With the dual benefits of macro and supply constraints, lead prices will continue to remain stronger in the short term.
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