SunSirs: The Supply-Demand Contradiction Was Stronger, and the Spandex Market Maintained a Downward Trend in May
June 05 2024 15:59:44 SunSirs (John)
Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic spandex market maintained a downward trend in May. As of May 31, the price of 40D spandex was 28,875 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.35% from the beginning of the month. The cost side support was still acceptable, but the downstream market situation was weak, and the supply-demand contradiction of spandex was strong, which was negative for the spandex market.
Analysis review
In the raw material market, the actual negotiated price for domestically produced 1800 molecular weight PTMEG dispersion in the spandex field was 14,500-15,500 RMB/ton, a decrease of 500 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the month. In terms of equipment, three sets of 46,000 tons/year PTMEG units in Inner Mongolia Huaheng had recently been loaded to around 50% due to boiler problems, two sets of 30,000 tons/year PTMEG units in Henan Nenghua had an overall load of 70-80%, and the 46,000 tons/year PTMEG units in Shaanxi Shaanxi Chemical had been shut down for maintenance since May 6th. The overall operating rate of the domestic PTMEG industry was around 69%. The domestic pure MDI market prices had risen, with a tightening of spot supply, coupled with a concentration of maintenance equipment, the price center had risen, and there had been an increase in some intention to close down. As of the end of May, the mainstream offer for Shanghai goods in the pure MDI market in the East China region was 18,600-18,800 RMB/ton.
The weaving market had a clear off-season atmosphere, with inventory still at a relatively high level, and there was still pressure from spandex factories to ship. The terminal weaving enterprises had reduced prices and promoted products in order to recover funds, but their enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials was not high, and the operating rate had also slightly declined. As of May 31st, the weaving industry in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was operating at around 71%. At the same time, due to factors such as rising shipping costs, tight containers, and longer debt cycles in foreign trade, manufacturers had become more cautious in accepting orders and downstream orders, which had caused a certain drag on demand.
Market outlook
Analysts from SunSirs believe that a favorable cost outlook will support spandex prices, but from June to August is the off-season for the terminal textile industry, and demand will further weaken. Under the stalemate between upstream and downstream, the spandex market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and it is expected that spandex prices will operate weakly and steadily in June.
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