SunSirs: China Rapeseed Meal Market Jumps after Rising in May

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, in May, there was a long short game, with mixed ups and downs in the feed raw material market. The overall feed index fluctuated and rose, with an increase of less than 1%. On May 31, the feed material was 970 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 28.52% from the highest point of 1,357 points in the cycle (2022-11-10), and an increase of 29.85% from the lowest point of 747 points on April 10, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2014-03-01 present)

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were a total of 3 products that went up, 2 products that went down, and 0 products that went up or down in the feed raw material price list in May 2024. The main rising commodities include DDGS (4.92%), soybean meal (2.69%), and corn (1.31%); The main commodities falling include wheat (-3.59%) and rapeseed meal (-1.19%).

After the rise of rapeseed meal market in May, it experienced a high platform diving, with an overall decline of over 1%. During the May Day holiday, the foreign soybean market rose, boosting the domestic oil and vegetable market. After the holiday, the rapeseed meal market rose. The weather is warming up, and aquaculture is gradually entering the peak season. The amount of rapeseed meal pickup has significantly increased, which is beneficial for the price of rapeseed meal. In the first half of the month, the rapeseed meal market continued to rise, with an overall increase of over 3%. In the second half of the month, the upward momentum of rapeseed meal was insufficient, and it gradually rebounded. At the end of the month, the decline was significant, with prices dropping to 2,770 RMB/ton, an overall decrease of 3.71%.

SunSirs agricultural product analyst believes that the main reason for the rebound in feed raw materials after the sharp rise in May is that in the first half of the month, the demand for terminal aquatic feed increased, and external soybean futures rose, supported by bullish sentiment. As a result, the DDGS market for corn, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal surged one after another. In the second half of the month, the bullish factors in the external market were digested by the market, and the continuous strong upward momentum of corn, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal prices was insufficient. As the end of the month approached, they all retreated, and the feed raw material sector rose and fell.

Entering June, the terminal aquaculture industry is still in its peak season, and the external market of American beans is in the growth period. The bullish factors are still present, and there is still room for the rise of soybean futures. Led by bullish sentiment, it is expected that the overall feed sector will continue to rise in the future.

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