SunSirs: Phosphate fertilizer prices continue to increase during the spring season (3.1-3.15)

1. Price trend
According to data from the SunSirs Bulk List, the average ex-factory price of powdered monoammonium on March 1 was 1993 yuan / ton, and the average ex-factory price of powdered monoammonium on March 15 was 2,116 yuan / ton. The commodity index of monoammonium phosphate on March 15 was 70.85, which was the same as yesterday, a decrease of 29.74% from the highest point of the cycle at 100.84 (2011-09-13) and an increase of 14.11% from the lowest point of September 19, 2017 at 62.09. . (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)

According to data from the SunSirs block list, the average ex-factory price of 64% diammonium on March 1 was 2,200 yuan / ton, and the average ex-factory price of 64% diammonium on March 15 was 2,250 yuan / ton, with prices up 1.02%. The commodity index of diammonium phosphate on March 15 was 66.00, which was the same as yesterday, down 35.91% from the highest point of the cycle at 102.98 points (2011-10-08), and an increase of 0.58 from the lowest point of March 04, 2020 at 65.62 points. %. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)

2. Market analysis

Monoammonium: In March, the price of monoammonium phosphate rose, and the current rate of resumption of enterprises is 62%. 55% of the powder in Anhui area is priced at about 2,000 yuan / ton, and the construction is stable. The ex-factory price of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei is around 1950-2000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of 60% powdered ammonium is 2150-2200 yuan / ton. The market in Henan has maintained stable operation. 55% of the powdered ammonium is priced at about 2,000 yuan / ton, and the construction is stable. The ex-factory price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong is 2100 yuan-2150 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The quotation of 55% powdered ammonium from Sichuan is about 1950-2000 yuan / ton.

Diammonium: In March, the price of diammonium phosphate increased, and Hubei enterprises resumed production one after another. At present, the resumption rate of enterprises is 61%. The current ex-factory price of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 2200-2250 yuan / ton, the ex-factory price of 64% diammonium in Shandong is about 2500 yuan / ton, and the ex-factory price of 64% diammonium in Yunnan-Guizhou area is 2450-2500 yuan / ton. Anhui In the region, the mainstream ex-factory price of 64% diammonium is around 2200-2250 yuan / ton. Heilongjiang offers 2500-2550 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: The spring ploughing of fertilizers is launched, and the terminal demand is about to start. Monoammonium, compound fertilizers, and urea prices are rising, which is hindered by logistics and transportation. Resumption of downstream production has driven up the demand for sulfur. Since March, the domestic liquid ammonia market has continued to rebound, especially in the northern regions, where the increase is among the highest. The domestic phosphate ore market ushered in the first wave of a slight increase in the beginning of the year. The resumption of multi-mine resumption and production increased, and the output gradually increased. Some mines have been fully started, and production and sales have gradually normalized. In the spring, the demand for phosphate fertilizer and other products increased, and the logistics base was fully restored. The sales of the phosphate ore market further increased, and the previous inventory was digested.

Industry: According to SunSirs price monitoring, in the 10th week of 2020 (3.9-3.13), commodity prices in the chemical sector rose 11 month-on-month in total, among which there were 3 types of commodities that increased by more than 5%, accounting for the sector being monitored The number of commodities was 3.4%; the top three commodities were ammonium chloride (17.14%), liquid ammonia (11.43%), and sulfur (7.18%). There were a total of 40 kinds of products with a decrease from the previous month, and a total of 14 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, which accounted for 16.1% of the number of monitored products in this sector. The top 3 products were PX (-11.29%) and OX (-10.71%). Molecular weight (-10.26%). This week the average rise and fall was -1.5%.

3. Future forecast

SunSirs ammonium phosphate analysts believe that the fertilizer market is currently in the peak sales season, raw material sulfur and liquid ammonia prices continue to rise, downstream demand is increasing, multiple benefits have led to rising prices of ammonium phosphate. Due to the increase in demand, it is expected that the subsequent fiery ammonium phosphate market will continue and the price will increase steadily.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with marketing@sunsirs.com.