SunSirs: Despite Weak Supply and Demand, China Refined Gasoline and Diesel Market Remains Sluggish

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price trend of domestically refined gasoline and diesel is sluggish. As of the 17th, the price of 92# gasoline in China was 8618.6 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.07% in mid month prices; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 7,236 yuan/ton, with a mid month price decline of 0.10%.

Cost aspect: The crude oil market has fallen, and the cost aspect has declined

As of the 16th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $80.76 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $83.73 per barrel. The recent trend of the crude oil market has fallen, and on the one hand, Israel has reapplied to promote ceasefire agreement negotiations, which has affected the crude oil market to fall. On the other hand, the market is still concerned about the economic and demand prospects, which is bearish for the international oil market, and crude oil market prices have slightly fallen. The cost support effect of the domestic refined oil market has weakened, and the domestic refined oil market remains sluggish.

Supply side: Refinery operations decrease, supply side weakens

Recently, the maintenance equipment in Shandong still exists, and the operating rate of Shandong refineries continues to decline. The average operating rate of Shandong refineries has dropped to below 50%, reaching a two-year low level, providing bottom support for the Shandong refined oil market. Domestic refining profits have been severely squeezed, with profits shrinking significantly. Refineries have low enthusiasm for operating, and the supply of refined oil remains low. The market for local refining of gasoline and diesel is mainly volatile.

Demand side: gasoline demand is still acceptable, diesel demand is sluggish

In terms of gasoline, with the gradual opening of summer tourism and the significant increase in temperature, the use of car air conditioning has increased, and the demand for gasoline is still acceptable. Intermediaries replenish their inventory according to demand, and the purchasing sentiment is average. The gasoline market price fluctuations are not significant. In terms of diesel, on the one hand, the impact of high temperatures and heavy rainfall has led to a significant decline in outdoor project construction; Agricultural diesel has come to an end, coupled with the impact of the fishing ban, the demand for diesel in the market is sluggish, and diesel prices continue to decline.

Currently, geopolitical instability still supports oil prices, and the peak driving season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand. However, there are still concerns about the demand outlook in the near future, and overall, crude oil prices are mainly fluctuating. From a domestic perspective, it is difficult to increase the operating rate of refineries in the short term. With the increased use of air conditioning in summer and the opening of summer vacation, there may be an increase in residents' travel. The demand for gasoline is still guaranteed, and the gasoline market will continue to be supported in the later stage; The demand for diesel is relatively low, but diesel prices are already at a low level. Coupled with reduced supply, the diesel market is mainly fluctuating at a low level.

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