SunSirs: The Reduction in Production Was Lower than Expected, and Lithium Carbonate Fluctuated Weakly in September

Price trend  

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic lithium carbonate market was weak in September. As of September 25th, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 77,800 RMB/ton, a decrease of 7.82% from the same period last month when it was 84,400 RMB/ton. The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 75,200 RMB/ton, a decrease of 7.84% from the same period last month when it was 81,600 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

The reduction in production was lower than expected

Recently, Ningde Times Yichun project and Jiuling Lithium Industry announced the suspension of production for maintenance. However, actual production data showed that domestic lithium carbonate production had decreased by about 3,000 tons per month, which was significantly lower than the market expectation of around 5,000 tons. The supply of lithium carbonate in the market had not significantly decreased as expected, which has not provided favorable support for prices.

Demand peak season fell short of high inventory

As of September 24th, it wathe peak demand season for lithium carbonate, and the rapid development of new energy vehicles and energy storage fields hadsignificantly increased the demand for lithium carbonate. In terms of power batteries, in August, the installed capacity of power batteries in China was 47.2GWh, a month on month increase of 13.5% and a year-on-year increase of 35.3%. Among them, the installed capacity of ternary batteries was 12.1 GWh, accounting for 25.7% of the total installed capacity, a month on month increase of 6.8%, and a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; The installed capacity of ferrous lithium phosphate batteries was 35.0 GWh, accounting for 74.2% of the total installed capacity, a month on month increase of 16.1%, and a year-on-year increase of 45.6%.

Yahua Group's annual production of 100,000 tons in Sichuan and Ganfeng Lithium's integrated project of ferrous lithium phosphate in Inner Mongolia both made new progress this month, with increasing pressure on the supply side. The overall supply and demand were matched to the inventory side, and although inventory continued to be depleted, the speed of depletion was not very ideal.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the lithium carbonate market showed a weakly volatile trend in September. The arrival of the peak demand season and the growing demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage had provided certain support for the market. However, the unsatisfactory speed of inventory turnover and the dynamic changes in market supply and demand may make it difficult for prices to experience significant increases or decreases.

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