SunSirs: The Fundamentals Had Improved, and the Price of Polyester Staple Fiber Stopped Falling and Rose
September 27 2024 15:28:09 SunSirs (John)
Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has stopped falling and slightly increased since mid September. As of September 26th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7,351 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.03% compared to September 15th. Positive factors such as macro reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have boosted the commodity market, and the recovery of macro atmosphere has caused resonance in the general rise of the commodity market. In addition, the cost side has shifted its focus upward under the support of crude oil.
Analysis review
International crude oil fluctuated and strengthened. As of September 25th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 69.69 US dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 72.90 US dollars per barrel. Since mid September, the domestic PTA market prices have stopped falling and rebounded. As of September 26th, the average market price in East China was 4,878 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.75% from September 11th.
In September, processing profits were somewhat compressed, and multiple PTA units in China underwent maintenance and load reduction. However, PTA maintenance units have been restarted one after another, which has increased expectations of loose supply. The operating rate of the domestic industry was around 81%. Considering the high operating rate of PTA production capacity in October, the decrease in processing fees may lead to an increase in unplanned equipment maintenance.
On the demand side, terminal consumption was not strong, and the improvement of macro atmosphere has stimulated some customers to actively purchase goods. They have started pre holiday stocking actions, and their replenishment mood has improved. They actively inquire about prices, but the persistence was not strong. They were still cautious about raw material procurement and maintain a focus on essential needs. Domestic orders for textile terminals fell short of expectations, and foreign trade orders may increase due to the impact of Christmas and overseas shopping festivals.
In terms of demand
SunSirs’ analysts believe that the cost was relatively warm, but the maintenance and short stop devices for polyester staple fibers have been restarted, leading to an increase in industry production and sufficient supply. And there was no obvious improvement in terminal orders, downstream or maintaining essential procurement. Under the game of warm costs and strong supply and weak demand, it is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers will continue to have insufficient upward momentum.
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