SunSirs: Positive Demand, China Thermal Coal Market is Stable to Strong

Trend of thermal coal market

Recently, the overall price of thermal coal in production areas has remained strong, and the transportation situation at the mine mouth is good; Due to the release of demand after the holiday and the completion of individual production shutdowns at the end of the month, some production areas have slightly increased their quotations; The market sentiment in the port sector has improved, with downstream power plants releasing demand for replenishment before the holiday. The high-quality resources in the port are structurally tight, and the market sentiment is stable but strong, resulting in a strong reluctance to sell; However, the overall supply and demand pattern is still balanced, and downstream acceptance of high-end goods is limited. Market transactions are deadlocked, and the overall sentiment remains cautious and optimistic; In the medium term, the market supply and demand are expected to be mild and relatively loose, with a high probability of coal prices maintaining a range of operation. We will pay attention to the release of demand for replenishment in the later stage.

In terms of imports

Price difference of imported thermal coal: The minimum bidding price for importing Indonesian coal Q3800 power plant is 492 RMB/ton, which is 107.6 RMB/ton lower than domestic trade coal of the same calorific value in South China ports; The minimum bidding price for importing Indonesian coal Q4500 power plant is 657 RMB/ton, which is 53 RMB/ton lower than domestic trade coal with the same calorific value in South China ports; The minimum bidding price for importing Indonesian coal Q5200 power plant is 769 RMB/ton, which is 91.3 RMB/ton lower than domestic trade coal with the same calorific value in South China ports. Recently, foreign mining quotations have remained firm, and under the support of costs, the bidding for imported coal has also been running at a high level. However, compared to domestic coal, its price advantage is still significant. It is expected that imported coal will operate steadily in the short term, and the actual procurement situation of the power plant needs to be monitored in the future.

Origin situation

Recently, the overall price of thermal coal in production areas has remained strong, and the transportation situation at the mine mouth is good; Due to the release of demand after the holiday and the completion of individual production shutdowns at the end of the month, some production areas have slightly increased their quotations; The market sentiment in the port sector has improved, with downstream power plants releasing demand for replenishment before the holiday. The high-quality resources in the port are structurally tight, and the market sentiment is stable but strong, resulting in a strong reluctance to sell; However, the overall supply and demand pattern is still balanced, and downstream acceptance of high-end goods is limited. Market transactions are deadlocked, and the overall sentiment remains cautious and optimistic; In the medium term, the market supply and demand are expected to be mild and relatively loose, with a high probability of coal prices maintaining a range of operation. We will pay attention to the release of demand for replenishment in the later stage.

Port situation

The power coal market in Beigang is currently operating steadily. The transaction price of Q5000 yesterday was 774 RMB/ton, and the current mainstream market price for Q5000 is 780 RMB/ton. The quotation for high-quality coal sources at the port remains firm, and there is currently no willingness to ship at low prices. Downstream inquiries are still mainly focused on price suppression. The overall market demand performance is average, and trading is relatively stagnant, mainly continuing to observe and wait. In the future, continuous attention should be paid to downstream procurement demand and changes in port inventory. As of September 25th, the inventory of the eight ports around the Bohai Sea was 22.815 million tons, an increase of 541,000 tons compared to the previous day.

In summary, considering the supply-demand relationship, policy regulation, and international market dynamics, the coal price advantage for heating is obvious, and the trend of mainly rising will be more pronounced with less decline and more increase.

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