SunSirs: China White Sugar Shows a Pattern of External Strength and Internal Weakness

The Zhengzhou sugar market has continued its trend of following the rise of the external market, but the increase has clearly converged. ISO's expectation of a global sugar supply shortage of 3.58 million tons in 2024/2025 provides a basis for the sugar market to strengthen, while typhoons and droughts in Brazil have ignited domestic and international sugar upward trends. The prospect of reduced supply in the fourth quarter will help further open up upward space for sugar prices. Under the pressure of relatively abundant inventory and supply, the sugar market in Zhengzhou is showing a cautious trend, presenting a pattern of external strength and internal weakness.

According to data from the China Sugar Association, as of the end of August, a total of 8.861 million tons of sugar were sold nationwide, an increase of 774,700 tons year-on-year, or 9.58%; The cumulative sugar sales rate is 88.94%, a year-on-year slowdown of 1.2 percentage points; The inventory of the sugar industry was 1.1022 million tons, an increase of 214800 tons year-on-year. ISO predicts that global sugar production will decrease by 1.1% to 179.9 million tons in 2024/2025, while consumption is expected to increase by 0.8% to 188.7 million tons, resulting in a global sugar gap of 3.58 million tons.

The most severe drought in Brazil in 40 years continues to pose challenges to agricultural products such as sugar. Recently released data on sugarcane extraction, sugar production, and sugar ratio in the central and southern regions of Brazil have all been lower than market expectations. Based on this, the global sugar supply and demand balance will become increasingly tight in the future, and sugar prices will remain strong.

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