SunSirs: China Wood Pulp Showed a V-shaped Trend in September, 2024, with Short-term Continuous Fluctuations
October 08 2024 16:09:52 SunSirs (Selena)
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of coniferous wood pulp showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing in September, while the price of broad-leaved wood pulp fluctuated downward. On September 30th, the average market price of coniferous wood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,250 RMB/ton, which remained stable compared to the average price on September 1st. On September 30th, the average market price of broad-leaved wood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,790 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.24% compared to the average price of 4,900 RMB/ton on September 1st.
On the supply side: With the end of the Canadian strike in early September, overseas pulp mill quotations have significantly decreased. In addition, the weakening of external demand will increase the supply of pulp mills to China in the future, and there is a possibility of a rebound in domestic import volume in the future. However, the continuous release of new domestic production capacity and the increase in market pulp supply have suppressed pulp prices, leading to a downward pressure on pulp prices.
From the shipment data of the main producing countries in July in mid to late September, it is expected that the import volume of broad-leaved pulp in China will slightly increase and then decrease from September to October. The overall supply pressure of coniferous pulp is still not high. However, there are rumors in the market that the buying transactions in August are good, and the domestic import situation may be difficult to show a significant decrease. Therefore, there is a clear upward driving force for the market, and the price of coniferous wood pulp is expected to rise. The continuous pressure on the growth of broad-leaved pulp production capacity has led to a weakening in the price of broad-leaved wood pulp.
On the demand side: Due to the downward impact of pulp prices in the early stage, the profit margin of downstream raw paper has improved, and purchasing sentiment has increased. The marginal repair of factory pulp consumption has driven pulp prices to stabilize and rise. However, due to the subsequent decline in pulp futures and limited volume of terminal orders in the raw paper market, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high, and there was no clear intention to concentrate on incremental replenishment in the market, resulting in a shift in pulp prices from rising to falling in early September.
In mid to late September, the paper industry gradually entered its peak season. With the launch of a new round of teaching materials and cultural paper orders, as well as Double 11 life paper orders, the downstream raw paper industry's operating rate may rebound, and paper companies' raw material inventories are relatively low. Therefore, the performance of wood pulp procurement is relatively strong, which has driven the price of coniferous pulp to slightly increase. However, the terminal demand for other types of paper still shows poor performance, with some small and medium-sized manufacturers experiencing downtime, and spot prices also showing a downward trend due to constraints from the demand side.
In terms of imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's pulp imports in August 2024 were 2.807 million tons, an increase of 20.7% month on month and a decrease of 14.6% year-on-year. The cumulative import volume for the year was 22.964 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 2.5% year-on-year. The import volume of pulp in August showed an upward trend, but still lower than the average monthly import volume in the first half of the year.
Domestic port data: As of September 26, 2024, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 1.734 million tons, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous period, and the inventory showed a trend of destocking this week. Among them, the inventory of Qingdao Port was 1.045 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% compared to the previous period; The inventory at Changshu Port was 539,000 tons, an increase of 1.3% compared to the previous period.
In terms of futures, pulp futures prices began to plummet in early September, with a drop of over 7.8% within half a month. As overseas sentiment is expected to improve, pulp is once again beginning to recover and rebound. As of September 30th, the opening price of the main contract SP2501 for pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,882 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,912 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 5,946 RMB/ton, with 289,000 transactions and 128208 positions held.
Business Society's wood pulp analyst believes that the pressure on market pulp supply will continue to increase, with relatively few maintenance plans for foreign pulp mills and an increase in new production. Although demand is boosted by the peak season of gold and silver, it is still weak against the backdrop of macroeconomic pressure. It is expected that the short-term spot price of wood pulp will continue to fluctuate and adjust within a certain range.
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