SunSirs: China Methanol Market is Fluctuating at a High Level

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from October 8th to 12th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2,620 RMB/ton to 2,551 RMB/ton, with a price decline of 2.64% during the period, a month on month increase of 6.06%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.89%. Before and after the National Day holiday, the domestic methanol market showed a significant increase followed by a decline, with relatively limited demand changes and an increase in supply. During the holiday period, the speed of truck delivery was limited, and after the holiday, methanol inventories in mainland China and ports showed accumulation. Methanol price rises to a high level and then rapidly falls back and runs.

As of the close on October 12th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2501, opened at 2,503 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,535 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,491 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,531 RMB/ton in the closing session, an increase of 30 RMB/ton or 1.20% compared to the previous trading day's settlement, with a trading volume of 233,383 lots and a holding volume of 601,185 lots, with a daily increase of 2,185 positions.

In terms of cost and imports, imported coal has a price advantage compared to domestic coal, and it is expected that the import volume will continue to remain high in the later stage; In terms of inventory, thermal power plants maintain high levels of inventory and do not have the possibility of releasing a large amount of demand. Even if driven by demand, the duration of coal price increase is very short, and the increase will not be too significant, belonging to a volatile rebound. Overall, short-term coal prices will mainly operate steadily, with limited upward and downward adjustments. The impact of methanol cost remains to be seen.

Demand side, downstream formaldehyde: Qingzhou Hengxing plant is expected to recover next week, with a slight increase in formaldehyde demand; Downstream MTBE: Jinjiang Oil and Chemical Plant has a start-up plan, resulting in an increase in MTBE demand; Downstream acetic acid: Yankuang Phase I has resumed normal operation, and the demand for acetic acid has increased; The downstream chloride plant in Shandong Jinling Dawang has been shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in chloride demand; The demand for dimethyl ether does not fluctuate significantly. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

Supply side, maintenance of Shanghai Mongolia Energy and Yankuang Guohong facilities; Jinergy Technology, Xinjiang Zotye, and Inner Mongolia Baogang have resumed their facilities. The recovery amount exceeds the loss amount, and the capacity utilization rate increases. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of October 11th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $347.00- $348.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 110.00 to 111.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 361.50-362.50 euros/ton.

In the future forecast, the overall supply of goods is abundant, and the growth rate on the demand side is relatively limited. The methanol analyst from SunSirs predicts that the domestic methanol market situation may mainly consolidate.

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