SunSirs: China Wood Pulp Prices Fluctuated after the National Day Holiday

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of wood pulp has continued to fluctuate after the National Day holiday. On October 12th, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,240 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.16% compared to the average price of 6,250 RMB/ton on October 1st. On October 12th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,770 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.62% compared to the average price of 4,790 RMB/ton on October 1st.

On the supply side: Currently, China's trade position is marginally strengthening, and supply pressure may rebound in October. During the National Day holiday, market shipments were relatively slow, with slight signs of inventory accumulation. Recently, two rounds of overseas pulp mill quotations have significantly decreased, and European port inventories continued to accumulate month on month in August. In August, the import volume of domestic pulp significantly rebounded compared to the previous month. With the weakening of external demand, the supply of pulp to China from pulp mills may increase in the future, and there is a possibility of further increase in domestic import volume in the future. In the second half of the year, domestic new production capacity continued to be released, increasing market pulp supply and exerting certain pressure on pulp prices.

On the demand side: The downstream market has weak follow-up after the holiday, and the decrease in operating load has affected the consumption of wood pulp, resulting in poor raw material procurement sentiment among industry players. The profitability of domestic downstream enterprises is still in a sluggish state, and downstream paper mills mainly consume raw material inventory in the early stage. The game situation between supply and demand remains unchanged.

Domestic port data: After the holiday, the sample inventory of mainstream ports in China has shifted from accumulated inventory to depleted inventory. As of October 10, 2024, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 1.729 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of Qingdao Port was 1.052 million tons, an increase of 0.7% from the previous period; The inventory of Changshu Port was 502,000 tons, a decrease of 6.9% compared to the previous period.

In terms of futures, pulp futures prices have risen slightly after the holiday. As of October 11th, the opening price of the main contract SP2501 for pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,910 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,942 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 5,948 RMB/ton, with a daily increase of 1.12%. The trading volume was 95,300 lots, and the position held was 139,028 lots.

The wood pulp analyst from SunSirs believes that there has been a marginal improvement in production and sales of downstream paper mills recently, which is expected to provide a certain boost to pulp prices. However, the performance of paper prices is still weak, and attention is being paid to the implementation of the price increase letter. It is expected that the short-term spot price of wood pulp will maintain a range price consolidation.

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