SunSirs: Raw Sugar Rebounds, White Sugar Spot Prices Rise

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the average price of first grade white sugar in China was 6,524 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week, and 6,546 RMB/ton at the end of the week, with a price increase of 0.34%.

The estimated sugar production in Brazil for the 2024/2025 crushing season continues to decline, and the production for the 2025/2026 crushing season may be affected. From the perspective of the northern hemisphere, the certainty of Thailand's sugar recovery and production increase is high, and the available export volume is expected to significantly rebound. India's actual sugar production and exports have been suppressed by ethanol, and attention is being paid to India's relevant policies. Brazil's production cuts have raised expectations of future global supply tightening, driving a strong rebound in raw sugar.

Due to the strong rebound in raw sugar futures prices, the overall import cost has increased, and the main price axis of Zhengzhou Sugar in China has also risen accordingly. However, the expectation of increased production has limited the overall upward space. In the long run, the import volume of sugar increased in the third quarter, and the import volume of syrup and pre mixed powder continued to increase. In addition, new sugar gradually came into the market in the fourth quarter, and the domestic sugar supply was relatively sufficient, resulting in a lack of upward momentum for white sugar.

Domestic white sugar prices continue to rise, but the market supply is sufficient and the upward momentum is insufficient. It is expected that white sugar prices will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

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