SunSirs: The Change Rate Remains Positive, the Retail Price of China Refined Oil Products has been Raised again in This Round

The domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on October 23. The zero selling price of refined oil has been raised again in this round, and the retail price in 2024 has experienced eight upward adjustments, eight downward adjustments, and four stranded adjustments. The crude oil change rate remains positive during the cycle, and the retail price adjustment of refined oil in 2024 will encounter the "ninth" upward adjustment.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market first rose and then fell. As of the 23rd, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $72.06 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $76.04 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated at high levels, which is partly due to the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East. This news is positive for international oil prices. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+ 2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. In addition, the local economy in Asia has improved, and the market's panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. Finally, the decrease in US crude oil inventories supported the oil market, and overall, the rate of change in crude oil remained positive throughout the cycle. As of the 23rd, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the tenth working day was 1.41%, corresponding to an increase of 90 RMB/ton of gasoline and 85 RMB/ton of diesel, equivalent to an increase of 0.07 RMB/liter of 92# gasoline, 95# gasoline, and 0# diesel.

In terms of gasoline: Recently, the operating rates of both main and local refineries have increased to a certain extent. Some maintenance facilities in Shandong have been restarted, and the operating rate of local refineries in Shandong has slightly increased. The average operating rate of local refineries in Shandong is around 60%, and the operating rate of main refineries in the country has risen to around 84%. The operating rate of local refineries continues to rise, and the supply of refined oil products has increased. Intermediaries are replenishing inventory as needed. Recently, there has been no holiday support, and travel has returned to normal. In addition, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand, leading to a decline in the gasoline market trend.

In terms of diesel: Recently, the supply side diesel market has increased, and in terms of demand, the increase in demand for marine fuel after the opening of the Bohai Sea has provided some support for the market. In addition, the previous increase in agricultural diesel has slightly improved the current outdoor project construction, and diesel inventory has declined. Traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations, and the diesel market is mainly volatile.

Looking ahead, the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States has ended, and global economic data has performed poorly. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have boosted the oil market, and the crude oil market is mainly volatile. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate has increased, the supply of refined oil products is relatively abundant, and the demand for gasoline is weak. In addition, the impact of new energy cannot be underestimated, and the price trend of the gasoline market has declined; In terms of diesel demand, as the traditional peak season approaches and diesel usage gradually increases, traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations. In the short term, the diesel market may rise, but the increase is limited.

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