SunSirs: Macro Sentiment Affected Nickel Price to Decline
November 18 2024 14:12:43 SunSirs (John)
Price trend
This week (11.9-11.15), the nickel price market had been falling all the way. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by SunSirs, as of November 15th, spot nickel was quoted at 124,666 RMB/ton, with a weekly decline of 4.68%.
Analysis review
As of November 15th, the situation of oversupply in the market continued, coupled with the influence of macro factors, prices were under pressure and declining. The market transaction situation had weakened compared to the middle of the week, and the bearish and wait-and-see sentiment had increased. Users can maintain their rigid demand, but the degree of shipment was uneven.
Macroscopically, the election sentiment of the new US president has led to a strengthening of the US dollar and the end of the nickel price rally. Due to concerns about the impact of the incoming US president's trade policies on the Chinese economy, a major consumer of metals, the London market fell across the board, affecting the continuous expansion of the domestic nickel price decline.
Supply side: Foreign inventory continued to grow, domestic inventory growth pressure has eased, and the market supply exceeded demand situation continued. As of November 15th, the quantity of Shanghai nickel goods that met the delivery quality was 30,472 tons, a decrease of 744 tons from last Friday; On November 15th, LME nickel inventory was 154,434 tons, an increase of 4,098 tons from last Friday.
On the demand side, stainless steel saw a slight decline during the week. On November 15th, the benchmark price of stainless steel in SunSirs was 13,625 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.37% compared to the beginning of the month. Due to weak demand performance, the inventory declined narrowed, and merchants tended to ship at low prices. Downstream customers maintained price pressure and made on-demand purchases, resulting in overall weak trading.
Market outlook
Inventory pressure and price resistance still existed, and it’s expected macroeconomic factors to improve. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the short term.
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