SunSirs: China MTBE Market Fluctuates and Rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from November 11th to 18th, MTBE prices rose from 5,275 RMB/ton to 5,412 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 2.61% during the cycle, remaining stable on a month on month basis and a year-on-year decrease of 16.89%. The price of MTBE in the domestic market has fluctuated and risen. As the delivery period of gasoline shipments approaches, the enthusiasm of industry players for purchasing relevant gasoline raw materials has significantly increased. MTBE manufacturers have followed suit and pushed up prices. Coupled with the gradual shutdown of some facilities, the favorable trend of reduced resource supply has begun to emerge, and MTBE prices have significantly increased.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have fallen, and the main negative factors are market concerns that Trump's future policies will drag down the economy and demand, as well as push up US crude oil production, coupled with easing tensions in the Middle East. As of November 15th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $71.04 per barrel, a decrease of $1.52 or 2.1%.

On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline terminal demand, in terms of gasoline terminal demand, the temperature in northern regions is gradually decreasing, and the private car travel rate of the public is increasing. At the same time, there are still some gasoline ship orders supporting it, and industry players still have a certain degree of enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: The construction of Jinjiang Oil and Chemical Plant and Shandong Chengtai Plant has affected production, while the construction of Yulong Petrochemical's new plant has led to an increase in plant operating rate. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on November 15th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $3/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $680.99-682.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $2.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $797.49-797.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $11.48/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $754.82-755.18/ton (213.13-213.23 cents/gallon).

In the future forecast, the shutdown of some manufacturers in the early stage will still affect the recent production, and the short-term resource supply is still relatively tight. MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market will continue to operate at a relatively high level in the short term.

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