SunSirs: Dynamic Analysis of the China Thermal Coal Market on November 19

1. Positive factors and data interpretation

Profit from shipping 5,500 units from the place of origin to the port and the outflow volume from the Three Gorges Reservoir

The profit of transporting 5,500 kcal of thermal coal from the production area to the port is -84 RMB/ton, which is operating at a low level, indicating that the transportation cost of thermal coal from the production area to the port is relatively high and the profit margin is limited.

The low-level operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir's outflow may have a certain impact on the transportation of thermal coal, but the specific impact needs to be comprehensively judged in conjunction with other factors.

Profit from shipping 5,000 from the place of origin to the port

The profit of shipping 5,000 kcal of thermal coal from the production area to the port is also at a low level (-77 RMB/ton), indicating that the transportation profit of low-quality thermal coal is also relatively low.

European International Coal Price Advantage

The international coal price advantage in Europe is -12 RMB/ton, operating at a low level, indicating that European thermal coal prices are relatively high and lack competitiveness.

Domestic thermal coal sea freight

The domestic shipping cost for thermal coal is 36 RMB/ton, which is operating at a high level and increases the transportation cost of thermal coal. Liduo Data Warning List

The low warning value indicates that the current bullish factors have a weak driving force for the rise in coal prices.

1. Negative factors and data interpretation

National power plant inventory and total social inventory of thermal coal

The national power plant inventory is as high as 1400.6 million tons, and the total social inventory of thermal coal is 224.77 million tons, both of which are operating at a high level, indicating sufficient supply of thermal coal and relatively weak market demand.

Daily average freight volume of Daqin Line and Datai Line

The daily average freight volume of Daqin Line is 1.31 million tons, and the daily average freight volume of Datai Line is also at a relatively high level, indicating sufficient transportation capacity for thermal coal.

Production stoppage ratio of coal mines in the production area

The shutdown rate of coal mines in the production area is 12%, which is operating at a low level, indicating that coal production activities are relatively normal and the supply of thermal coal is stable.

Daily average import volume of Northern Port

The daily average import volume of Northern Port is as high as 2.05 million tons, indicating a large import volume of thermal coal in the port and sufficient supply.

Negative data warning list

A high warning value indicates that the current bearish factors have a strong driving force for the decline in coal prices.

1. Commentary on Data Changes

The international coal price advantage in Europe is rapidly shrinking

European thermal coal prices are gradually approaching international levels, but still lack competitiveness. The proportion of coal mine shutdowns in the production area is rapidly decreasing, and coal mine production activities are gradually recovering. The supply of thermal coal will further increase. The price advantage of imported Indonesian coal is rapidly shrinking, and the price of Indonesian thermal coal is rising, resulting in increased import costs. The profit of shipping 5,500 from the origin to the port is rapidly expanding, although it is still negative, the rapid expansion of profit indicates that transportation costs may be decreasing or the price of thermal coal may be rising. The number of ships in northern ports is rapidly expanding.

These indicate busy port transportation activities and sufficient supply of thermal coal.

1. Market sentiment analysis

The market has strong bearish expectations, with a bearish ratio of up to 47%, a flat ratio of 41%, and a bullish ratio of only 12%. This reflects the current market pattern of sufficient supply and relatively weak demand in the thermal coal market.

In summary, the current thermal coal market is affected by multiple negative factors, with sufficient supply and relatively weak demand, resulting in insufficient motivation for coal price increases. Meanwhile, the market sentiment is generally bearish, further exacerbating the downward pressure on coal prices. However, it should also be noted that some positive factors are gradually emerging, such as the rapid expansion of profits from shipping 5,500 to the port, which may bring some uncertainty to the future trend of coal prices.

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