SunSirs: The BDO Market Was Operating at a Stalemate
November 20 2024 09:31:57 SunSirs (John)
Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from November 11th to 18th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8,842 RMB/ton to 8,785 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.65% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 11.70%. Recently, there have been frequent fluctuations in the operation and maintenance of the equipment, with a mainly wait-and-see attitude. The industry continued to suffer losses, and suppliers actively supported the market, limiting the room for market price fluctuations. The overall downstream demand was average, and there was a game between supply and demand, resulting in a stalemate in the focus of the domestic BDO market.
Analysis review
On the supply side, Xinjiang Xinye's equipment malfunctioned on November 12th, while Anhui Huasu's equipment was scheduled to start production by the end of November. Although some devices unexpectedly shut down, Shaanxi Guorong and Meike Phase II have restarted, and the expected increase in market supply and inventory has weakened supply side support.
In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: The regional performance of the calcium carbide market has strengthened, and limited electricity has emerged in Inner Mongolia, especially in the Wuhai area, which has accelerated the tight supply of goods in the market. Recently, the environmental impact in Shandong and Henan regions has weakened, and there has been an increase in demand. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market was mainly consolidating. As of 3:00 pm on November 18th, the domestic methanol Taicang price was 2,510 RMB/ton. The raw material calcium carbide market fluctuated narrowly, methanol prices remained high and consolidated, and the impact of BDO costs was mixed.
On the demand side, downstream industries except for PTMEG have shown a significant increase in production, while others had stable or declining operations, and overall raw material digestion was average. The impact of BDO demand remains to be seen.
Market outlook
The expected increase in market supply of goods has weakened the support from the supply side. The downstream demand side followed up generally, and there was a bargaining sentiment towards raw materials, which was bearish on the market mentality. SunSirs’ BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly be consolidating..
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