SunSirs: The Cost has Fallen, and the market for BR is weak and declining

Recently (11.11-11.19), the market price of BR has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of November 19, the market price of BR in East China was 14,280 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.99% from 15,030 RMB/ton on November 11. The price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, and the center of gravity of BR has shifted downwards; BR production slightly decreased; The downstream tire production is generally stable. BR suppliers have lowered their supply prices, and merchants have adjusted their offers. As of November 18th, the mainstream prices for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze regions in East China range from 13,700 to 14,450 RMB/ton.

Recently, the price of butadiene has continued to decline, and the cost support for BR has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of November 19th, the price of butadiene was 10,162 RMB/ton, a decrease of 7.09% from 10,937 RMB/ton on November 11th.

Demand side: Downstream tire production is basically stable, and demand is mainly supported by the rigid demand of the BR market. As of November 15th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 79%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 59%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from SunSirs believe that the price of raw material butadiene will significantly fall, and the cost center of BR will shift downwards; In the near future, downstream construction has been adjusted steadily, and there is a slight resistance to the high price supply. In general, the short-term or weak adjustment of cis-1,4-polyBR market is dominant.

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