SunSirs: The Change Rate has Shifted from Positive to Negative, and the Retail Price of Refined Oil Products was not be Adjusted temporarily

The domestic refined oil price adjustment window for this round opened at 24:00 on November 20th. The retail price of refined oil was not be adjusted for the time being. The retail price of refined oil in 2024 has experienced nine upward adjustments, nine downward adjustments, and four strandings. During the cycle, the crude oil change rate has turned from positive to negative, and the retail price adjustment of refined oil in 2024 will encounter a "fifth" stranding.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market is mainly volatile. As of the 19th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.39 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.31 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated widely, with little overall change. On the one hand, OPEC's production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, which is good news for international oil prices. On the other hand, weak demand in China, India, and other regions has led to continued concerns in the market about demand, which is bearish for the oil market. The recent geopolitical situation remains one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. Overall, the rate of change in crude oil during the cycle has shifted from positive to negative. As of the 20th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was 0.37%, corresponding to a 15 RMB/ton reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices, which did not touch the adjustment red line of 50 RMB/ton. Therefore, the retail price of refined oil products will not be adjusted for this round.

In terms of gasoline: Recently, the operating rates of both main and local refineries have increased to a certain extent. Some maintenance facilities in Shandong have been restarted, and the operating rate of local refineries in Shandong has slightly increased. The average operating rate of local refineries in Shandong is around 59%, and the operating rate of main refineries in the country is around 84%. The operating rate of local refineries continues to rise, and the supply of refined oil products has increased. Intermediaries need to replenish inventory as needed. Recently, there has been no holiday support, and travel has returned to normal. In addition, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand, and the gasoline market is mainly volatile.

In terms of diesel: Recently, the supply side diesel market has increased. In terms of demand, the increase in demand for marine fuel after the opening of the Bohai Sea has provided some support for the market. However, agricultural diesel has come to an end. In addition, with the decrease in temperature and the gradual decline in outdoor project construction, diesel inventory has not changed much. Traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations. Overall, the trend of diesel prices has not changed much.

Looking ahead, the current crude oil market is mixed with bearish factors, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. International crude oil may maintain a volatile trend. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate has increased, the supply of refined oil products is relatively abundant, and the demand for gasoline is weak. In addition, the impact of new energy cannot be underestimated, and the gasoline market prices are fluctuating at a low level; In terms of diesel demand, with the gradual weakening of demand and the reduction of diesel usage, traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations, and the diesel market situation is generally average in the short term.

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