SunSirs: China MTBE Market Situation sporadically Adjusted

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from November 18th to 22nd, MTBE prices rose from 5,412 RMB/ton to 5,460 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 0.88% during the period, a month on month decrease of 1.27%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.80%. The domestic MTBE market is mainly experiencing sporadic adjustments, with relatively frequent price fluctuations but limited space. The demand for gasoline terminals is still acceptable, and industry players have a certain degree of enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials. MTBE manufacturers often sell at high prices. After the price rose to a high level, the cautious mentality of operators increased, and the market situation was mainly consolidated.

In terms of cost and crude oil, the rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the temporary failure of some oil fields in Norway, which led to a temporary decrease in production, and the increased instability of the Russia Ukraine situation. As of November 21st, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $74.23 per barrel, an increase of $1.42 or 1.9%.

From the perspective of demand and downstream gasoline terminal demand, the temperature in northern regions continues to decline, and the private car travel rate of the public increases. Retail gas station shipments have performed well, and most gas station merchants maintain medium to high levels of inventory for procurement and sales. With some shipping orders awaiting delivery, there is some support on the demand side. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.

Supply side: Dongfang Hongye and Bengu New Materials have plans to start construction, and resource supply is expected to increase. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on November 21st, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $1/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $709.49-711.49/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $1.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $813.24-813.74/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $4.82/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $764.42-764.78/ton (215.84-215.94 cents/gallon).

The future forecast still needs to wait and see the demand follow-up situation and the start time of some manufacturers. If there is no substantial positive follow-up, MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that there may be a narrow downward adjustment in the domestic MTBE market in the short term.

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