SunSirs: Cost Support, the Recent Trend of Refining Gasoline and Diesel has been on the Rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price trend of refined gasoline and diesel has been rising recently. As of the 25th, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 7,453 RMB/ton, with a weekly price increase of 3.45%; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 69,022 RMB/ton, with a weekly price increase of 2.34%.

Cost side: The trend of crude oil is rising, and the cost side is strongly supported

The recent rise in international oil prices has led to a significant increase in crude oil market prices at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. On the other hand, crude oil supply remains tight, with OPEC's production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day extended until the end of December. Supply constraints persist, and international crude oil prices are trending higher. Recently, the trend of crude oil market prices has risen, which has provided strong cost support for the domestic refined oil market and led to an increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices.

Supply side: Shandong's local refining operation is stable, and there is little change in the supply side

In recent times, the operating rate of main refineries may remain stable, with limited fluctuations in resource supply. The average operating rate of Shandong refineries is around 58%, while the operating rate of main refineries nationwide remains around 82%. There is little change in the operating rate of local refineries, and the supply of refined oil products is stable. Export profits have improved, and some units still have high export intentions, with an increase in gasoline exports, which provides some positive support for the trend of gasoline and diesel.

Demand side: Normal demand situation. The gasoline and diesel market is on the rise

In terms of gasoline, there has been no holiday support recently, and gasoline terminal consumption has returned to residents' daily short distance travel as the main focus, with basic needs as the main focus. Intermediaries replenish their inventory according to demand, and the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has brought certain impacts on gasoline demand. However, with the decrease in temperature and the increase in the use of car air conditioning, it is favorable for the gasoline market. In terms of diesel, the increase in demand for marine fuel after the opening of the Bohai Sea has provided some support for the market. However, agricultural diesel has come to an end, and with the decrease in temperature, outdoor projects are gradually declining. However, exports are driving diesel demand, and traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations. Overall, diesel prices have slightly increased.

Currently, the crude oil market is mixed with bearish factors, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. International crude oil may experience wide fluctuations. From a domestic perspective, the short-term operating rate of refineries remains stable, the supply of refined oil is relatively abundant, and the demand for gasoline is still acceptable. However, the impact of new energy cannot be underestimated, and gasoline market prices have slightly increased; In terms of diesel demand, with the gradual weakening of demand and the reduction of diesel usage, traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations, and the diesel market situation is generally average in the short term.

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