SunSirs: Nickel Prices Fluctuated at a Low Level in November

Price trend

Macro disturbance to market sentiment, nickel prices fluctuated at a low level in November. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by SunSirs, as of November 28th, spot nickel prices were quoted at 128,300 RMB/ton, with a monthly increase of 3.4% and a decrease of 2.31% compared to the beginning of the year.

Analysis review

Macroscopically, the US presidential election has disrupted market sentiment, the US dollar index has strengthened, and nickel prices were under pressure. The Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated, and geopolitical factors stirred the market trend. The domestic stock policy continued to show effectiveness, the incremental policy was effectively implemented, and the policy combination effect was constantly released. The trend of China's economic recovery and improvement was steadily strengthening, which provided positive support for nickel prices. But the new US government may impose high tariffs on China, and the market was concerned that China's metal demand sentiment has not decreased, which will affect the fluctuation of nickel prices.

Supply side: Domestic policies were favorable, nickel prices were at a low level this year, and there was a significant destocking of nickel in Shanghai. As of November 28th, Shanghai nickel inventory was 27,251 tons, a decrease of 64 tons during the month; LME nickel inventory continued, with 159,966 tons in LME nickel inventory on November 28th, an increase of 13,146 tons for the month.

In terms of demand, the demand for alloys such as military and shipbuilding was still acceptable, and they were being purchased at low prices, and purchased on demand. Stainless steel saw a slight increase followed by a significant decline in November. As of the end of November, the spot price of stainless steel was 12,335.71 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.76% from 12,685.71 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and a year-on-year decrease of 2.32%. The traditional off-season was approaching, with weak demand for stainless steel in November. As the weather gradually cooled down, outdoor projects in some areas have been suspended, and overall procurement has slowed down, resulting in a decrease in order volume.

Market outlook

Inventory pressure and price resistance still existed, and demand was buying at low prices, causing macroeconomic disturbance to market sentiment. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the short term.

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