SunSirs: China Refined Gasoline Market Rose and Diesel Prices Fluctuated in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price trend of locally refined gasoline rose in November, with diesel prices mainly fluctuating. As of the end of the month, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 7,482 RMB/ton, with a monthly price increase of 3.82%; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 6,851.4 RMB/ton, with a slight increase of 0.30% in monthly price.

Cost side: Crude oil prices fluctuate, and cost support is limited

The international oil price market was mainly volatile in November, with a significant increase in crude oil market prices at the beginning of the month and a gradual decline in crude oil prices in the later period. Overall, the crude oil market remained relatively stable. On the one hand, the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. On the other hand, crude oil supply remains tight, and OPEC's production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, indicating continued supply constraints. However, the prospect of crude oil demand is not optimistic, which suppresses the crude oil market price. Overall, the crude oil market price fluctuates widely, and the cost support for the domestic refined oil market is limited. The domestic gasoline price trend is rising, and the diesel price trend is fluctuating.

Supply side: Shandong's local refining operation is stable, and there is little change in the supply side

In recent times, the operating rate of main refineries may remain stable, with limited fluctuations in resource supply. The average operating rate of Shandong refineries is around 58%, while the operating rate of main refineries nationwide remains around 82%. There is little change in the operating rate of local refineries, and the supply of refined oil products is stable. Export profits have improved, and some units still have high export intentions, with an increase in gasoline exports, which provides some positive support for the trend of gasoline and diesel.

Demand side: Normal demand situation, average gasoline and diesel market

In terms of gasoline, there has been no holiday support recently, and gasoline terminal consumption has returned to residents' daily short distance travel as the main focus, with basic needs as the main focus. Intermediaries replenish their inventory according to demand, and the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has brought certain impacts on gasoline demand. However, with the decrease in temperature and the increase in the use of car air conditioning, it is favorable for the gasoline market. In terms of diesel, after the opening of the Bohai Sea, the increase in demand for marine fuel has provided some support for the market. However, agricultural diesel has come to an end, and with the decrease in temperature, outdoor projects are gradually declining. However, exports are driving diesel demand, and traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations. Refineries are reducing prices and promoting sales, and the diesel market has basically recovered its previous gains. Overall, diesel prices are mainly fluctuating.

Currently, the crude oil market is mixed with bearish factors, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. International crude oil may experience wide fluctuations. From a domestic perspective, there is a downward trend in the short-term operating rate of refineries. The supply of refined oil products has eased market pressure, and gasoline demand is still acceptable. However, the impact of new energy cannot be underestimated, and gasoline market prices have slightly increased; In terms of diesel demand, with the gradual weakening of demand and the reduction of diesel usage, traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations, and the diesel market is unlikely to rise in the short term.

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