SunSirs: Supply and Demand Gamed, TDI Weakly Declined in November
December 02 2024 14:30:15 SunSirs (John)
Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall TDI market in China was weak in November, with a gradual decline. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 12,950 RMB/ton, and on November 29th, the TDI price was 12,650 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.32% during the month and a year-on-year decrease of 24.7%.
Analysis review
The performance of the domestic TDI market in November was average, continuing to be weak, and the focus of transactions shifted downwards. Except for a few devices that experienced short-term shutdowns and unstable operation during the month, the overall operation of other devices was stable, with limited supply side benefits. Downstream demand had not improved, with rigid demand as the main factor and insufficient purchasing power. Under the game of supply and demand, the focus of TDI transactions continued to shift downwards.
Supply side: Shanghai Covestro was parking and maintenance, with plans to restart on December 7th; Xinjiang Juli had resumed stable operation, Fujian Wanzhong was operating at high load, and other facilities were operating smoothly.
The upstream toluene market fluctuated and fell. As of November 28th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 5,723 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.35% from the price of 5,860 RMB/ton on November 1st. The supply and demand of toluene in the month were weak, and the demand in the chemical industry in Shandong was still acceptable. The purchasing enthusiasm of other industries was not high, and the overall downstream demand was biased towards rigid demand. The inventory in southern China was high, and refineries were actively shipping. At the end of the month, the futures market strengthened, boosting the mentality of the toluene market. Recently, there hadbeen fewer goods arriving at the port, and the price of toluene had rebounded slightly.
Market outlook
The TDI data analyst from SunSirs believes that there was a strong willingness to raise prices in the upstream market, and the low-end prices of TDI were tightening. The atmosphere in the market was relatively quiet, and the factory settlement price at the end of the month was about to be released. We are waiting for the news to land and expect the TDI market to consolidate and operate in the short term
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