SunSirs: China BR Market was Weak and significantly Declining in November

Since November, the butadiene rubber market has been weak and significantly declining. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of November 29th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 13,380 RMB/ton, a decrease of 14.12% from 15,580 RMB/ton at the beginning of November. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has dropped significantly; The production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased, but overall it remains at a low level; Downstream tire production remains stable with slight fluctuations, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber. Within the month, the supply price of butadiene rubber has gradually decreased. As of November 29th, the mainstream price of butadiene rubber in Qilu, Yangtze, Daqing, and Sichuan in East China is between 13,150 and 13,650 RMB/ton.

Since November, the price of butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of November 29th, the price of butadiene was 9,725 RMB/ton, a decrease of 21.10% from 12,325 RMB/ton at the beginning of November.

Demand side: Since November, downstream tire production has remained stable with slight fluctuations, and demand is supported by the demand of the butadiene rubber market. As of November 29th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 79%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 59%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from SunSirs believe that the price of raw material butadiene will significantly decrease, and the cost center of butadiene rubber will significantly decrease; BR production has slightly increased, but the supply is facing insufficient market support; The current downstream tire production is stable with slight fluctuations, and overall, the market for BR may experience weak adjustments in the short term.

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