SunSirs: Low Demand during the Off-season, Polyester Staple Fiber Prices Remained Weak in November
December 03 2024 16:15:51 SunSirs (John)
Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic polyester staple fiber market experienced a slight decline in November. As of November 29th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7,176 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.03% from the beginning of the month.
Analysis review
The international oil price market was mainly volatile in November, with a significant increase in crude oil market prices at the beginning of the month and a gradual decline in crude oil prices in the later period. Overall, the crude oil market remained relatively stable. On the one hand, the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East remained one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. On the other hand, crude oil supply remained tight, and OPEC's production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, indicating continued supply constraints. However, the outlook for crude oil demand is not optimistic, which is suppressing the crude oil market price. Overall, the crude oil market price is mainly fluctuating widely.
The domestic PTA spot market maintained a volatile downward trend, with the average PTA market price in East China at 4,741 RMB/ton as of November 29th, a decrease of 3.24% from the beginning of the month. Multiple PTA units have increased their load within the month, with ample supply in the spot market and lackluster downstream demand. PTA was mainly driven by rigid demand. The fluctuating geopolitical situation and wide fluctuations in international crude oil prices have provided a certain boost to PTA costs. Under the game of weak fundamentals and cost support, PTA prices have adjusted downward overall.
The downstream market has gradually entered the traditional off-season of demand, with yarn mills starting production or appropriately reducing it. Enterprise inventory may show a trend of accumulation, and factory shipment conditions may be difficult to improve. Domestic sales are gradually weakening, while foreign trade was partially recovering. As the end of the month approaches, most weaving factories have reported a significant decline in the market, with an outstanding order volume of around one month. A few weaving factories have stated that they have sufficient orders to meet the end of the year. Foreign trade home textile orders and simulated silk orders from the Middle East have been issued in bulk, but weaving factories generally indicate that prices are low. As of the end of November, the operating rate of the weaving industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 71%, and there was a high probability of a decline in demand in the later stage, with poor speculative and rigid demand.
Market outlook
SunSirs’ analysts believe that as December approaches the Spring Festival, some polyester staple fiber factories will gradually carry out maintenance and supply will gradually shrink. However, with the continued off-season for textiles, demand for polyester staple fibers will decline even more, weakening price support. Therefore, the polyester staple fiber market is likely to continue to weaken.
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