SunSirs: Supply Was Tight in November, Lead Prices Fluctuated Upwards
December 04 2024 09:37:45 SunSirs (John)
Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market rose in November 2024, with an average price of 16,460 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 17,165 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 4.28%.
On December 3rd, the lead commodity index was 105.68 points, up 0.91 points from the previous day, down 21.14% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (2016-11-29), and up 41.61% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
Analysis review
According to the K-bar chart of commodity prices, it can be seen that after the lead price rose in January 2024, the trend in the first half of the year was volatile to be stronger. From March to July, it continued to rise, and after a pullback from August to October, it resumed its upward trend at the end of the year due to tight spot prices. Looking at the weekly trend, there was a split of gains and losses.
The lead ingot market rose strongly in the first half of November, followed by a short-term correction and stabilization. In the second half of the month, the market continued to consolidate and rise, with an overall upward trend.
On the raw material side, the price of lead concentrate had increased. On the refining end, some smelters have reduced production due to environmental inspections. For example, a refinery in Anhui is expected to reduce production by about 1,000 tons, and a refinery in Yunnan is expected to reduce production by 20%. Multiple domestic refineries are facing tight supply of maintenance and spot goods. In terms of new production, Qinghai Refinery has plans to increase production.
On the supply and demand side, the total supply of lead ingots decreased year-on-year, reflecting a certain degree of weak consumption. Recently, some lead-acid battery companies had plans to reduce production, and the impact needed further observation.
Market outlook
Overall, the lead market supply in November 2024 was affected by production cuts, resulting in weak demand. However, the international market demand was good, leading to a slight increase in prices. It is expected that lead prices will remain high in the short term.
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