SunSirs: China Corrugated Paper is temporarily Stable

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper has stopped rising and remained stable this week. On December 5th, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,668 RMB/ton, which remained stable compared to the average price on December 1st.

In terms of upstream raw materials, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang region has slightly increased this week, while the price of waste paper in domestic paper mills has remained stable with small fluctuations. On December 5th, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow cardboard in Zhejiang region was 1,618 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.87% compared to the average price on December 1st. Due to the sufficient stock of waste paper in the early stage of the paper mill, the paper mill mainly consumed inventory this week, resulting in a slowdown in the rise of the waste yellow cardboard market. But with the increase of winter rain and snow weather, which may affect the recycling and shipping of waste paper, the willingness of paper companies to stock up is still increasing.

On the supply side: Due to the continuous rise in the corrugated paper market in November, the destocking effect of paper companies is more obvious, and inventory pressure is not significant. As the end of the year approaches and the cost of downtime for paper companies is high in winter, the operating rate of paper companies remains at a high level. In addition, multiple bases of large-scale paper mills have already released price increase plans for December, with a strong attitude towards raising prices, which has a positive impact on the market trend.

On the demand side: Currently at the end of the year, with the approaching Spring Festival and New Year's Day, driven by the influence of traditional holidays, businesses have positive expectations for demand release. However, downstream packaging factories currently have spare stock of raw paper, and the transmission of price increases in downstream cardboard factories is not smooth, resulting in significant cost pressure.

The paper analyst of SunSirs believes that the current corrugated paper market is in a state of digesting the price increase in the early stage. Paper mills pay more attention to the release of terminal demand and the downward transmission of prices, so the price of corrugated paper is temporarily stable. However, driven by the market price increase atmosphere, it is expected that the price of corrugated paper may rise in the short term.

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