SunSirs: Expected Increase in Supply, China PE Market may Fluctuate weakly

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8,755 RMB/ton on November 28th, and the average price was 8,783 RMB/ton on December 6th, with a price increase of 0.32% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10,816 RMB/ton on November 28th, and the average price was 10,816 RMB/ton on December 6th, with prices remaining unchanged during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic price of HDPE (2426H) was 8,757 RMB/ton on November 28th, and the average price was 8,562 RMB/ton on December 6th, with a price drop of 0.15% during this period.

Recently, the trend of PE has fluctuated, with narrow adjustments being the main focus. On the supply side, according to data statistics, the maintenance loss of PE plants during the (11.29-12.5) cycle was around 98,400 tons, a slight increase of about 1,900 tons compared to last week. In December, new production capacity will be gradually put into operation, and there are expectations of an increase in the supply side. Downstream demand is at the end of the peak season, with strong market demand, but downstream resistance to high prices has slowed down transactions; On the cost side, international oil prices have fallen due to the unexpected increase in US refined oil inventories, causing market concerns that demand remains weak.

On December 6th, the PE L2501 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange opened at 8,366 RMB and closed at 8,351 RMB, a decrease of 36 RMB, with a maximum of 8,380 RMB and a minimum of 8,300 RMB, a decrease of 0.43%. Recently, futures have weakened, dragging down the spot market.

New production capacity will be added in December; In addition, there are no plans to stop for maintenance next week, which is expected to reduce maintenance losses and increase supply expectations; Entering December, the demand for greenhouse film is coming to an end, with a cumulative decrease in orders, and downstream production rates may decrease; It is expected that PE will mainly experience a weak and fluctuating trend.

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