SunSirs: China Wood Pulp Prices Fluctuate in the Short Term

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of softwood pulp slightly increased this week, while hardwood pulp showed a continuous downward trend. On December 6th, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,270 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.16% compared to the average price on December 1st. On December 6th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,478 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.41% compared to the average price on December 1st.

In terms of supply, there will be a significant increase in pulp production capacity in China in the second half of the year, resulting in overall supply pressure. The import volume of domestic pulp remained stable in October, and the overall import pressure this year is not significant. However, with the weakening of external demand, there is a possibility of increased import pressure. In addition, due to the disturbance of overseas supply, the US dollar quotation remains strong, and the price difference of pulp has widened as a result.

On the demand side: Overseas pulp consumption remains weak, port inventory continues to accumulate month on month, and inventory pressure is marginally increasing. The purchasing sentiment in downstream markets has recovered to some extent, but the transaction pace still appears sluggish, and traders have followed the market to maintain a pace of just in demand shipments. In addition, the major downstream factories have entered a stage of phased shutdown, resulting in a significant reduction in the supply of cultural paper downstream. At the same time, publishing orders have been delivered to support factory shipments, and the supply-demand contradiction has eased marginally.

Domestic port data: The current port inventory is at the mid level of the year. This week, the sample inventory of mainstream ports in China showed a trend of accumulation. As of December 5, 2024, the sample inventory of pulp in mainstream ports in China was 1.841 million tons, an increase of 130,000 tons from the previous period and a month on month increase of 7.6%. The inventory of Qingdao Port, a mainstream port, shows a trend of accumulation, mainly due to the sharp increase in arrivals during the cycle. The shipping speed has increased during the cycle, with an average daily shipment of 15,000 tons, and the proportion of broad-leaved pulp in the port exceeds 50%. This cycle, the inventory at Changshu Port also showed a trend of accumulation, with a slowdown in shipment speed during the week and a cumulative shipment of over 80,000 tons.

In terms of futures, this week's pulp futures prices have weakened and consolidated. As of November 22, the opening price of the main contract SP2501 for pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,800 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,866 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 5,886 RMB/ton, with a daily increase of 1%. The trading volume was 180,200 lots, and the position was 88,053 lots.

SunSirs wood pulp analysts believe that the current profitability of paper mills is still in a sluggish state, with poor shipments leading to a decrease in raw material procurement. However, with the frequent price increase letters from paper mills, short-term support for pulp prices still plays a strong role. It is expected that the short-term spot price of wood pulp will remain stable and wait and see.

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