SunSirs: The Supply and Demand Structure Was Weakening, and the Price of Polyester Staple Fiber Will Continue to Decline

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has shown a slight decline since December due to the low demand season. As of December 12th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7,126 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.7% from the beginning of the month.

Analysis review

The recent relatively strong crude oil market has boosted the cost of short fibers. Although OPEC has lowered its global demand forecast for five consecutive months in its monthly report, the decrease in US crude oil inventories has been offset by an increase in refined oil inventories. However, China's boost to the economy may increase oil demand, and European and American crude oil futures have risen for the third consecutive day. As of December 11th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 70.29 US dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 73.52 US dollars per barrel.

This week, the domestic PTA spot market showed a slight upward trend. As of December 12th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4,734 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.14% from the beginning of the week. But its own supply was still sufficient, and the 1.1 million ton PTA plant of Zhuhai Ineos was overhauled for more than 20 days in early December. The total production capacity of PTA at Jiaxing Petrochemical was 3.7 million tons per year, of which the 1 # 1.5 million ton units underwent maintenance on December 12th, and the restart time is yet to be determined. The supply has slightly decreased, and the PTA industry was operating at around 88%. However, the domestic PTA supply remains high, and we are concerned about the progress of Dushan Energy's 2.7 million ton PTA new plant plan to be put into operation in mid December next week.

The trading atmosphere for cold resistant fabrics at downstream textile terminals was still good, and the atmosphere for inquiries about some spring orders was good. Intermediaries and traders only stocked up on demand, and the delivery of domestic and foreign trade orders was coming to an end. As of December 11th, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was less than 70%. As of December 12tj, factory inventory and financial pressure have increased, and the connection of new orders was not smooth. Weaving manufacturers were cautious and weak in their expectations for the future, and there were still expectations of a decline in production in the weaving industry. With the impact of the off-season of consumption, it is expected that the transaction atmosphere in the yarn market will further weaken, and there is an expectation of weakened demand.

Market outlook

Overall, due to the lack of sustainability driven by favorable costs, as well as sufficient supply and weak demand, the supply-demand structure was weakening, and it is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will continue to decline.

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