SunSirs: China PVC Fluctuated Last Week

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the PVC spot market fluctuated within a range last week (12.09-13), with prices first falling and then rising. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 5,000 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.20% during the week.

Last week, due to limited positive news on fundamentals, there was little change in the crude oil and futures markets. The price range of PVC has fluctuated, with a slight downward shift in the overall range. As of the weekend, the price has slightly stopped falling, and some markets have slightly rebounded, but it has not risen above the level at the beginning of the week. On the one hand, due to the low operation of upstream crude oil prices, ethylene has shown weak performance. In addition, the futures market has fallen, and the spot PVC market has been linked to a downward trend. Coupled with loose supply and demand, most manufacturers are operating stably. The supply pressure has not changed much, and it is difficult for dealers to improve their offers. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electric aggregate in China is mostly around 4,900-5,080 RMB/ton.

In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the decline and increase of calcium carbide since December have been zero. The upstream lacks positive guidance for PVC, and overall, the price increase in the calcium carbide market during the week is weak, with limited support. As downstream PVC falls back into a slump, the price of calcium carbide may also experience fluctuations.

The PVC analyst from SunSirs believes that in the short term, the weak balance between PVC supply and demand is the main factor, and the operating rate of manufacturers remains high. Both enterprise inventory and market inventory are high. On the cost side, the ability to drive upstream carbide prices is limited, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has shown weak performance in the later stage, which has affected the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will remain weak and volatile in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

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