SunSirs: Cost Continues to Rise, China PC Market Strengthens

According to the bulk ranking data from SunSirs, the domestic PC market has recently seen an increase, with some spot prices of certain brands rising narrowly. As of December 17th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16,300 RMB/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 2.62% compared to early December.

In terms of supply: Previously, companies such as Jiaxing Emperor gradually returned, and the industry average operating rate rose to over 80%. Recently, the overall operating rate of PC in China has narrowly declined to around 78%. The average weekly production of PC remains at a super high level of over 60,000 tons. The on-site supply of goods is still abundant, and the mismatch between supply and demand remains unchanged. The high inventory has led to cautious pricing by manufacturers, and the auction market has slightly improved. The market supply side is generally supportive of PC prices.

In terms of raw materials: As can be seen from the above chart, after the rapid downward trend of bisphenol A, the spot price at the end of last month has reached a low point. At the same time, there is a delay in the production of new devices on the news side, which has boosted the supply side significantly, coupled with the maintenance of some enterprises in the early stage. Although the price of raw material phenol has fallen from a high level due to the cooling of gas purchases, the arrival of cargo at the port has been delayed, and the inventory level at the port is only about 6000 tons. Spot goods are still in a tight supply situation, and there is a stable supply and price sentiment. At the same time, the main downstream PC and epoxy resin stocks are stable, and influenced by various favorable factors, the price of bisphenol A continues to rise, and the mentality of industry players is strengthening. Overall, bisphenol A remains stable and strong, providing further support for PC costs.

In terms of demand: The PC consumption pattern has not improved for a long time, and the overall trend continues to be weak in the previous period. The logic of weak rigid demand purchasing in the market continues, and the wait-and-see sentiment of industry players is biased. As the end of the year approaches, downstream factories are taking over goods to maintain production, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. Purchasing and price chasing operations are cautious, and only some companies have seen an increase in operating rates. The slow circulation of goods in the market has limited changes, and the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

The PC market has been on the rise recently. The upstream bisphenol A market continues to rise, further strengthening the support for PC cost side. The load of domestic polymerization plants has dropped by 2%, while the supply remains loose and unchanged. The high level of inventory in the industry has limited changes, and there has been no substantial improvement in supply pressure. The downstream stocking pattern has not changed, making it difficult to drive market trends. Business Society believes that the rise in raw materials has brought strong cost side benefits, but at the same time, it has also brought cost pressure. The profound mismatch between supply and demand is not something that can be alleviated in the short term, and there may be some companies returning for maintenance in the future. Therefore, the PC market may be hindered from rising in the future, and it is recommended to closely monitor the trend on the cost side.

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